Month: October 2013
Still Here
Just with nothing to gamble on. Going back few days, not only did the Rams cover but they had 1st and goal with four chances to win the game and predictably failed on all four attempts. I got cold feet after my Cardinals, Bills and Bucs forays and couldn’t bring myself to wager on yet another terrible football team with no QB. This is why systems are good for you.
Speaking of systems, I tweaked mine for NHL and it keeps coming back with no plays. This means I can’t lose anything, but it’s also very non-eventful. Buffalo and Nashville are leans and not plays for me tonight.
Lastly, following along with Sean’s NBA picks, I took a couple of futures because I can’t help myself when it comes to a good season bet. I have the Nets to win the Atlantic at -140 and Milwaukee over 28 wins at -123.
I am most likely passing on tonight’s shitty Thursday night NFL game, but the public is 4:1 on the Bungles so it’s Miami or nothing for me. I’ll probably play if the line makes it to 4 (it’s currently 3 -113). Should be some games on Sunday as the public is loading up on some of these away teams.
Free Bets are Fun
Tonight the NBA starts, and to get people to actually bet on NBA team futures, Bovada is running a promotion for a free (up to) $20 bet: if the Miami Heat 3-peat (and they are favored to do so at 21/10), everyone gets their cash back.
Here are our choices:
|
Brooklyn Nets
|
||
I think the Bulls are always one Derek Rose injury away from disaster. They also have the weakest bench, but I think the strongest coach out of all these teams (including Doc, will get to that in a minute).
Indiana is very young and balanced and talented…..but they really need another superstar scorer/identity to match LeBron and Wade. I like Coach Vogel, he’s ornery and is defensive minded. I just don’t think they have the horses to beat Miami in a 7 game series (they may face them in the ECF again).
The L.A. Clippers got Doc Rivers in the offseason, who as a coach is leaps and bounds over Vinny Del Negro (who has helped build many-a-bankroll). The problem? It probably will take Doc a year to figure out which guys on this current Clipper team are “his” guys as well as who isn’t (he is very intense…and very impatient with young players)…..as well as waiting to sign KG/Pierce in free agency next year. I will say under Doc however, Chris Paul as an MVP candidate at 10-to-1 is not a bad play in any year.
The Spurs are old, and had their run last year. This year for them will be very much like the year the Patriots are having in 2013: lots of injuries to key guys, young players stepping up and getting the job done against teams of similar competition, them getting into the playoffs, and eventually losing to a really good team with younger talent in the 1st or 2nd round.
I forgot the Brooklyn Celtics when I wrote this, but they in my opinion are just too old for a long run. They will probably face the Knicks in the first round, though, and that should be fun.
Oklahoma City is an enigma; they have the worst coach out of this lot and Westbrook isn’t due back until 2014. They just haven’t been the same team since they traded Harden. They do have Durant however, the second best player in the league.
Who did I go with? Houston at 12-to-1. A speculative play, but I really like the way their GM Daryl Morey has built the roster. The lack a true PF, but with Howard in the middle it’s probably better if they played a little smaller to offset the lost offense (plus you can focus on geting Howard the ball in the post). IMO, their bench is the best out of all of these teams. And they maybe one of the teams interested in Rondo once he becomes available at the trading deadline (so will OKC, too).
I am also betting the Miami Heat/Bulls Over tonight (188) and teasing Miami (-5) with the Lakers (+10). Why? Because I hate money, that’s why.
Monday
Buffalo was an NFL loser yesterday thanks to their inability to stop touchdowns from occurring on 3rd and 20. I wasn’t around to get anything down on a teaser or the Cardinals which would have lost and won respectively. Very tempted to have a go with the Rams tonight at +13 at home to Seattle. This is basically the same as last week’s game with the Cardinals, only St. Louis doesn’t have a quarterback. I can’t bet Seattle, so it’s St. Louis or pass. I probably pass here.
No hockey yesterday. Washington is very close today at Vancouver, but I’ll wait a few hour since it’s a west coast game.
Sunday
I am hungover too. 1-1 on hockey yesterday for a small win. 4-4 for +1.5 so far. In NCAA Colorado was a loser by more than 13. 5-6 -1.34 for me now on that season.
Only one NFL play for me so far and it’s Buffalo +11 @ New Orleans. Pat, Sean, their parents and roughly 80% of the betting public are all taking New Orleans today. It’s also a top 5 Hilton contest pick along with Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota and Atlanta. That all points me to the away team and I’d be backing up the truck somewhat if this game were in Buffalo. Also no Jimmy Graham today for the Saints.
I may end up taking Arizona in the late game, but it will depend on the line and if I’m around. Will check for any teasers here too before kickoff.
Screaming Hangover
But I am boozing again so it’s fine. I will live. These are plays I have and I kind of like them. I have to write these down or otherwise I am likely to make opposing bets.
Cleveland +7.5 -119 @ KC
Buffalo @ NO Saints -11 -103
Miami (+6) @ NE
Jets (+5) @ Cincy
Pitt @ Oak Under 40.5 -102
Saturday Streaking
NCAA:
Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt Over 70
I’ve hit this 4 weeks in a row. As long as Manizel plays….and we’re gambling. Vandy also averages 33 points a game, and 37 at home.
UFC:
Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson +130
NFL:
KC – 9 and Teaser with Under 39.5 vs CLE
Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns. I had the displeasure of watching this guy in the second half of a Ravens game I bet on……the line was a sweat but with the way Campbell threw the ball (in the dirt): it wasn’t. He’s awful. If this were Weeden, I’d stay away…but we will take the points.
Dallas +3 + Over 48 Teaser @ DET
This should be a wild game full of mistakes. Could turn out to be important in the wild card picture in the NFC
Denver/Washington Over 59
The Over in Denver’s games this year is 6-0-1 so far this year. Plus anytime I get to bet an over where D’Angelo Hall is involved, I jump in it.
New Orleans -11
Might also throw this in a teaser with GB (-10) at Minnesota.
I am also betting against Tampa Bay the rest of the year…….to put it bluntly, they hate their coach. I put a hundo on the Panthers Thursday (who are playing really good ball right now) wit hthis logic in mind. The only thing that stopped Cam Newton on Thursday night was the Bucs’ cannon:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Tc6GbsmAnJs
NCAA Saturday
Loser in hockey again and even worse I misread my sheet and missed a +170 winner on the Islanders. Hopefully it will get made up today…Again, the usual disclaimer, I have not and have no plans on watching any of these teams actually play.
Only 1 football game, Colorado +13
In the afternoon hockey game, Edmonton +145. Jets and Rangers are on the short list for later tonight.
UPDATE: Rangers +170
Friday
Two losers yesterday. Will try and do better today. NHL Buffalo +125
Thursday
Short post again today. Ottawa was an easy winner in hockey yesterday. One play again today and it’s the terrible Rangers +130 @ the equally Terrible Flyers. Another unentertaining sporting event that we are also gambling on is the NFL game tonight. I was on the fence betting this game, but the line move to 7 has pulled me in. Tampa +7 -110, fading the public on a home game per usual. Nothing ridiculous doing on either game, just a standard 1u.
Wednesday
Hark! A play! Ottawa +130
I promise I really do have the baseball wrap up coming soon. Preview: we finished on the plus side.
