Month: August 2013

Pro-Am Football

The easiest money you will win this year on anything is going to be betting the Over on Indiana college football total wins.  I asked Lou how much I was possibly allowed to bet on one thing and he said, “don’t you owe me money?”  Well played.  Indiana is going to smush their Over, please remember you heard this here first on Aug 26th, year of Our Lord 2013.  The Vegas number is 5.5, the real number should be 6.25, the actual number will be at least 7.  This is a thing that will happen.

The Bet

Indiana Over 5.5

UPDATE

There will definitely be more of these to follow but IU is my big play.  The juice on the bet is absurd (-155).  Vegas realizes they are going to win at least 6.  I would honestly rather have 6 at even money.  Lame, se la vi.

UPDATE II

The Indiana action wound up being the only thing I genuinely liked.  I would love to bet the Oklahoma under, not really as an indication of the team’s potential weaknesses as a recognition of how difficult their schedule is, but @ 8.5 Vegas is as always a step ahead.  As with baseball this year, I will make up for this lack of early action with oodles of regular season plays, starting in earnest Week 2.

Wednesday

No plays today as anything close already happened in the day games.  Close loser last night in Miami which obviously pays out negative as the Marlins lost 5-4.  More tomorrow…

Back in Action

Slowly after a busy weekend gambling in person.

Dodgers (Capuano) @ Fish (Turner) +118

Friday

Back with a winner yesterday as the Sox made Ben Affleck Day come true again by conspiring to lose a very winnable game 2-1 scoring the one run on 11 hits.  13-8 +5.4 for August to date.  One play so far today and it also involves the Sox hosting the Yankees:

Yankees (Pettitte) @ Sox (Doubront) Under 9 -105

Lots of other options today but nothing clear-cut so far.  Milwaukee, Philly and Minnesota are tops for sides, Reds and Phillies again for overs at the moment.  Nothing on the day games so expect one update with any plays in a few hours.

UPDATE: Dodgers (Greinke) @ Phillies (Lee) -105

NCAA Football Totals

I’m debating betting college football this season and am currently dabbling in building some college football models and backtesting a couple of data sets against my spiffy excel sheet with lots of tabs.  Before any of you ask, I’m not actually going to watch any of these games, but I’m guessing line moves and something similar to what I have for baseball will work for college football.  That said, my knowledge is approximately zero on any of these teams, so this would be strictly a math and line movement model and thus weaker than what I have for baseball.  I say approximately zero knowledge because I did read a bunch of team previews last week and felt inspired enough to make the season bets below.  I won a medium sized bet on Stanford a couple of years ago, but they are the only team I’ve watched (other than their opponents) in maybe three years.  I’ll be happy if these turn a small profit.

Top Teams, Small Dollars

Alabama Over 11 -110

Oregon Over 10.5 -150

Worse Teams, Medium Dollars

Auburn Under 7 -150

Cincinnati Over 8.5 -135

Kansas Under 4 -130

Thursday

Sloppy gambling yesterday as the Cubs were nowhere near winning but the Yankees won easily in a game we passed on.  I took the Cubs under for the picks contest which was a winner and obviously a much better play.  Will try and do better today.  Two leans on totals, Over 7.5 in Oakland and Under 8 in Detroit.  On sides Toronto and San Diego are the only options.  Updates per usual if I decide to play any of these.

UPDATE: One play tonight:  Boston (Peavy) @ Toronto (Buehrle) +109

 

Wednesday

Squeaked out a winner yesterday in the 5-hour affair that was Pirates-Cardinals extra innings.  First Starling Marte dropped a routine fly ball up 3-2 in the 9th that led to extra innings, then Mike Matheny failing to understand his batting order and what double switches are meant to accomplish, ended up with no batters remaining and Seth Maness batting cleanup behind Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig.  In the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, Matheny allowed Maness to swing and the Pirates turned a 6-9-3 double play with five infielders playing in to get out of the inning.  In the 13th, Matt Carpenter doubled with two outs and the Pirates promptly walked both Beltran and Craig to bring up Maness again who struck out.  Despite the mismanagement, the Cardinals scraped together a run in the 14th to win 4-3.

I thought today was going to be rather slow, but there is a play already in the day games:

Reds (Arroyo) @ Cubs (Rusin) +116

I am busy at work today but will update with any plays before the night games at 7.

UPDATE: Cubs lost 5-0.  Obviously should have taken the under as I did in the picks contest.  Nothing doing tonight, Yankees are closest but I’d need a slightly better price.

Tuesday

1-1 again yesterday, this time for a micro loss.  Sox were a relatively easy winner but our over was never close.  Andrew Albers for the Twins has opened his MLB career 2-0 with 17.1 innings pitched and a 0.00 ERA.  Only six hits allowed in the two games and one walk.    You can read about him here.  One play for ya’ll today:

Pittsburgh (Morton) @ St. Louis (Wainwright) Under 7.5 -120

Monday

1-1 yesterday for a miniscule profit.  Two more plays today:

Cleveland (Salazar) @ Minnesota (Albers) Over 8 -110

Detroit (Fister) @ White Sox (Sale) +106

Sunday

1-1 across a two sports yesterday as soccer has hit a downswing while baseball plays keep doing well.  No totals again today and no plays so far either, though SF, Colorado and Toronto are the options today in that order.

Updates when available but this may be an empty day.

UPDATE: Baltimore (Norris) @ San Francisco (Cain) -111

Pittsburgh (Locke) @ Colorado (Bettis) +125