Month: January 2011
Bears/Packers
Let’s talk about the Bears/Packers game. The line of Packers -3.5 is pretty damn interesting. There are several factors that Vegas had to deal with in making the line, the most important probably being that essentially every one and their mother seems to bet the Packers. I’ve brought this example up a few times on this site but the classic case was last year when their road playoff game against the Cardinals went from Cards -3 to Pack -2.5.
When I got over the shock of seeing a road #6 seed as a favorite in a conference championship, my thought was Vegas simply said, “You know what, we know you’re going to bet Green Bay anyway, here. Deal with this. Minus three, Bitches.” And bitches did deal, the original line I saw had GB -3 and the next thing it’s -3.5 and even -4 at some places. This in spite of the fact that the teams split the season series, and the Packers only won the final game in Green Bay, a game they had to win, and a game that meant nothing to Chicago, 10-3.
There is one crucial stat that GB supporters can look to and that’s point differential. Did you know that the Packers were second in the NFL in point differential at +148? This with Aaron Rodgers missing time and/or half woozy at points during the season. And now he’s healthy. This is where people seriously betting GB make their case. The Packers, when healthy this year, play so well, that you have to ignore the ridiculousness of betting against a home underdog, that this Packer team is one of those special teams where guidelines like home field advantage don’t really apply. Hence why they walk into Chicago a favorite, as they walked into Atlanta as a pick ‘ em against a well rested team that had beaten them two months earlier.
For my money (and I mean that, I have 50 dollars on this with JaPan) I am going with Chicago. I actually grabbed them at +3 thinking the line would only move in the direction of a pick em, oops. I could see Cutler throwing 4 INTs, one or more for a pick 6, and GB winning 38-14. But at the end of the day I think of this game as being pretty even from a match-up perspective, with the key differences being the game is in Chicago and I am getting 3 points right from the kickoff. We’ll see what happens. The team Green Bay finished second to in point differential? The Patriots, oops.
As for Jets/Pitt, my gut is to like the Jets at +3.5.
Week 17 Picks
Steelers -6 (-125) I just see Pittsburgh, with a “win-and-get-in” situation for the bye and the division, take care of a struggling Browns team at home today. Plus out of all the lines where this type of situation occurs, this one is the most reasonable to bet on, even with the juice.
Falcons -13 John Fox just got canned, the Falcons lost a very winnable game on Monday night versus the Saints, and homefield is on the line for Atlanta. You know Mike Smith must of gave these guys hell in the meetings this week watching the Saints game film, especially on offense where they had problems running the ball. Methinks they take it out on the Panthers today, and be motivated enough to get a big lead to pull starters in the 4th.
Packers/Bears Over 42 Resting or no resting, these teams will score a lot today, especially with how good Rodgers looks at home vs the Giants this week, and the Bears getting big plays in between 5-6 plays of superior mediocrity on offense led by Jay Cutler. Plus Cutler COULD throw a few TDs to the Packers D, too. And you throw in the Devin Hester, but I doubt that because the Packers were dumb enough to kick to him on Week 4 and paid the price
4 team Teaser @ 3-1 (You can also add the Packers -4 in this one @ 4.5-1 if the Falcons game is already decided as then the Bears will just be resting people):
Steelers PK
Colts -4
Ravens -4
Falcons -8
