Month: November 2010
Glad I Spent 600+ Words Ripping Chicago
The curse of the blog continues? In all fairness it was a very well played game, at home, by the Bears and absolutely horrendous play calling by the Eagles. Can anyone explain to me why the Eagles kicked field goals in the 4th quarter down 31-13 and 31-16?
Some other notes:
– We’ve now found the level of quarterback at which the Texans defense becomes NFL level calibre. That level is called Rusty Smith.
– Is Matt Lineart really a worse QB than the collection of guys Arizona has been trotting out all season?
– Packers/Falcons was the best game I’ve seen all season.
– Week 13 lines are up. Who is the 3-team teaser this week?
Lastly, some Grey Cup highlights from a video recording on some Canadian dude’s TV. Sounds about right.
How Far Off is Vegas on College Basketball (Probably Not Very)
New project. I am going to take half a dozen games chosen at random from college b-ball, note the line, and note how far off Vegas was. I am just curious enough to do this, let’s get this started and hope I don’t puss out on this after a day or two. I’ll include games that are at neutral sites, but not ones that are confusing. It took me about ten minutes to figure out (and I’m still not positive about this) that Duke is somehow the listed home team against Kansas St in Kansas City, MO
- Yale (+24.5) @ Illinois
- New Mexico St (+10) @ UTEP
- No. Colorado (+6.5) @ Santa Clara
- Washington (-3.5) N Kentucky
- Georgia Southern (+22) @ Texas Tech
- UC Davis (+1) @ Sacramento St
Da Bears
I’m on record publicly as being skeptical of the Bears’ success so far this season (and Tampa to a lesser extent, though I’ll leave that for another post). It’s not that Chicago has a terrible team, they’re easily a mid-table side capable of beating most teams at home and are expected underdogs on the road versus all but the bottom 20-25% of the league. Their defense is very good and their special teams are back to being excellent again.
The offense however, is offensive. They’ve yet to score 30 points in a game this season and are still near the bottom of the league in short yardage, an improvement over ranking 32nd in 2009. Cutler and the skill players are not bad, but obviously their line is atrocious and is preventing the Bears from being a Super Bowl contender.
Similar to college basketball, road records can often tell you a lot about the actual quality of a team. Beating teams at home isn’t particularly indicative of a good team. Teams with poor home records, however, are almost never good. Only six teams have recorded four or more road wins this season: Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa and Chicago. The first three are among the best in the league, Miami has been horribly unlucky and I’ll cover Tampa in a later post. Looking at the Bears road wins, they’ve beaten two teams without an NFL caliber QB (Carolina and Miami), the 2-8 Bills and the 3-7 Cowboys. Sorry if I’m not overly convinced.
All of this is merely a preview for determining the proper odds on Chicago losing their last 6 games in a row. Their schedule is arguably the toughest in the league down the stretch:
vs PHI (+3.5) (Eagles ML is -178)
@ DET
vs NE
@ MIN
vs NYJ
@ GB
If we set lines on all of these games, we can then convert to an approximate moneyline and then throw all of these in a parlay calculator to see what the payout should be.
We’ll start with the Packers because it’s the easiest of the 5 remaining to handicap. The Jets host the Bungles this weekend and Baltimore is at home to Tampa. Both of those games are a similar type matchup to Bears @ Green Bay and those games are both -9, -400.
New England and the Jets are both of similar quality to the Eagles and we’ll install both of them at -4, -200.
This leaves divisional road games at Detroit and Minnesota. Detroit is 2-2 at home, routing the Rams, beating the Redskins and losing by a FG to the Jets and Eagles. They are 6.5 point underdogs Thursday at home to New England. I could make an argument Detroit should be favored, but we’ll make the game a pickem for our purposes here. As far as Minnesota, they could have given up on the season by the time this game rolls around. I think this is the Bears best chance to win out of the 6 and will make Minnesota a +1.5, +120 underdog.
Entering these in the parlay calculator (-400, -200, -200, -178, -100, +120) yields a payout of 18.33/1. If you up New England and the Jets to -6, -270 favorites, the payout drops to 15.13 which is pretty close to what I offered Pat if I may say so…
I’ll still take action on this at 15, but there’s no way I can do 12. Even moving the Lions to -140 and the Packers to -450, along with the Jets @ Pats adjustments still leaves it at 12.5. I’ll offer Pat a compromise and say I’m willing to go a low as 14:1 just because I think this will be a fun bet to make and as Pat mentioned, I can’t actually bet this anywhere else.
Current Bets
I went to the site today because I thought Allen had said that he had posted about a big 4 or 5 team teaser he had and hit last week, and I was going to rank on him for backposting on kooky bets he places that actually hit. How often do you see someone making a backpost about a 6 teamer where they went 3-3? But 6-0! I am a genius, where is my keyboard! The world must know! But Allen didn’t make that post, so to make up for it, I’m going to do some backposting myself. Here are some current bets I have going right now…
Heat – No best reg record or no win championship (300)
The only people that actually read this site know this story already but I originally had a 100 dollar bet on this with JaPan. Straight up, he wins if the Heat finish with best overall and win the Championship. After Game 1 where the Heat got smoked by the Celtics I offered him to settle for 75 on the spot and yada, yada, yada, we now have 300 dollars on the line. I would probably be posting this even if the Heat weren’t struggling, but the fact they lost to Indiana last night at home is the ultimate typing catalyst. Don’t want to jinx this but this looks promising to say the least.
Jets (or Bills) to win AFC East vs Patriots (40)
Another Japan bet. The bet was made either directly after the first Jets/Pats or after the Jets/Broncos, I’m pretty sure it was the former. Needless to say booze has made the issue murky. At this point you have to give the Patriots the odds on this due to the schedule and that the Jets go to Foxboro two Monday nights from now. I like JaPan’s chances. As a side not I insisted that I get the Bills also in the bet.
Over/Under Season Win Total Bets – Pub Crawl
In case you were wondering about the baseball O/U pub crawl bet this year I smoked Lou Lou. This one looks promising for Louis but it’s close. I’ll edit this section when I have the numbers in front of me.
Chicago Bears to Win One Game for Remainder of Season
This is not an actual bet at the moment but one Lou Lou proposed Sunday night. He posed the question, what are the chances that the Bears do not win another game the rest of the season? Looking at the schedule, the Bears from here in will be an underdog in most games with a couple of essential coin-flips thrown in. Louis originally wanted 10-1 odds, which I accepted. Weary that I accepted so quickly he then graciously and generously offered himself something like 18-1. Currently we are in a stalemate, I’ll lay 12-1 but Lou Lou is holding out for 15-1. I think this one is going to die on the table. The only hope of action is that this is a bet that has to be made in a non-internet setting since the line doesn’t exist in real life. We’ll see.
Maxim Game
I am going to post whenever I see a game where I feel there was a potential precedent set at some point. They will be called Maxim games. The Maxim scenario here involves…
Team A is a very strong team playing at home. Team B is their even more talented opponent. Team B is so strong that Vegas puts them as 5 point favorites despite playing on the road against a very, very good team. The result of the game…Team B beats the hell out of Team A, absolutely destroys them. The game we are concerned with, is the very next week…
Team A then goes on the road to a play a fairly weak Team C. Team C is not horrible but they are definitely mediocre. Vegas makes Team A a 6 pt favorite. The result of the game…Team C beats the hell out of Team A.
Team A was the University of Utah over the last couple weeks. Were they so dejected by their late season home loss to TCU that they had little chance against Notre Dame on the road? Something to keep an eye on. I’ll keep a look out for relevant examples. Points of interest, college not pro game, at #5 Utah had chance to win out and play in huge bowl game
Now this is What I am Talking About
Good work, Allen. I don’t mean on the picks, but on getting crap down on the site. Any outsider reading Allen’s posts may be potentially blown away by the in-depth knowledge Allen has for such a seemingly random team as William and Mary. He refers to them multiple times as “The Tribe.” Did anyone else have to google search “Tribe college basketball” to figure out who the hell he was talking about? Allen throws “Tribe” into the post like it’s the equivalent of “Orangemen,” or “Lady Vols.” For those not in the know I am pretty sure Allen’s father went to William and Mary so keep half a thought on that when reading future posts. Whenever Allen casually drops “Tribe” references into the conversation in the same tone as “Blue Devils,” now you know why.
Judging Allen’s picks. I’m not going to do this often, but I feel like doing this now.
College – The first games were solid. I didnt see the St Johns or VCU games but both teams easily covered his teasers and picking St Johns on the road against an established program like St Marys is impressive. Taking Baylor and s illinois looks like a case of being half awake and being too lazy to look into things and taking a couple of home favorites against seemingly weak programs.
Pros – Passing judgement on these is going to be made super easy by the fact that the games have already happened and Capt Hindsight is the one evaluating the picks. With that said, I really like the OKC pick. I actually went to a site to make sure Allen hadn’t made a typo and it was OKC -6 which would have seemed more accurate to me. And obviously, Capt Hindsight is not a fan of the Clippers pick but I can say what I had said to Van yesterday. The fact that the Clippers lost (in overtime albeit) to the Pistons at home the other night should be a red light indicator that the Clippers are not playing well at all right now. Just throwing that out there.
Hopefully me being judgemental of Allen’s picks will not halt the relative avalanche of posts Allen has been putting up since getting on the site. Please scrutinize the shit out of the picks I’ll be putting up.
The marathon continues…
Too soon. I should’ve listened to the Tribe’s coach when he said that it would be January before they hit their stride. Hindsight is 20/20. Have no fear, as the marathon continues there will be plenty of opportunities to get back in the game…starting now.
I woke up to see Northeastern v S. Illinois on the schedule for 10am. I thought, “Didn’t Northeastern put a guard in the NBA from last year?” Sure enough, they did. It will have to take a while to fill that void in a program that isn’t traditionally known for being a powerhouse. It’s also a put up or shut up year for head coach Chris Lowery of the Salukis. No better time to start than with a comfortable home victory. The Pick: Salukis -5.5
Why not tease it with Baylor? OK, I will. Salukis -1.5, Baylor -11.5.
Impulse Bets
Just for fun…here are my NBA impulse bets of the eve. Thunder +6.5 at Utah. Utah is coming off a terrific road trip where they came from behind (no pun intended) in every single win. They’ve been back in town just long enough to pat themselves on the back, call up the mistresses, and let down their guard. OK City, on the other hand, knows every W is crucial. They’ve been playing better as of late and are disappointed in last night’s defeat to the Spurs. Back to backs won’t affect this young team at this point of the season and something tells me they want to play right now. The pick: OK City +6.5
2. Clippers -2 at home to the Nets. The Clippers are too talented to lose all their games. They won’t win many, but something tells me a bad Nets team traveling across the country is right up their alley to impress the home crowd. Let’s just hope it’s not by 1 pt. The pick: Clippers -2.
“It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year”
Yes, it may be a little early for bowl commercials, but with the NFL in midseason form, college football entering rivalry/championship weekends, NBA entering early season stride, and ESPN’s 24 hour college bball marathon; it’s the perfect time to begin cataloging what is sure to be a whole lotta gambling. Let us begin:
NCAA bball-How could we forget the run William and Mary had at the end of the 2009 season? They almost beat, and definitely covered, UNC in the NIT (Oh, yeah, there was another tourney going on as well)? I didn’t forget, though. I also didn’t forget that they beat Richmond last year, either. They did lose several key players to graduation(shocking), but at a program like W&M they don’t rebuild, they reload. All joking aside, experience and home court will be with the Spiders tonight. However, playing a half within a basket of UVA on the road gave these kids all the confidence they need to know they can compete. Marcus Kitts (center) missed most of the second half due to illness and foul trouble, and perhaps their best gaurd, Kendrix Brown, was slowed due to an ankle injury. Both of these guys will be looking to redeem themselves on Monday. W&M also didn’t shoot very well. Their mantra is DEFENSE, ball control, and 3-pt jump shots. Fortunately, defense is the one thing they can control, and getting back to familiar competition in a smaller arena will make these shooters feel right at home. The pick: W&M +16
Now, if you know me, you would be very familiar with the fact that I sabotage all good picks with unnecessary, ridiculous ties to parlays and teasers. So here’s how I’ll ruin this one:
1. Tribe- +23, St Johns +11, VCU -5.5…Why, you ask? First, St Johns. Four words: Steve Lavin, ten seniors. St Mary’s better muster up all that magic from last season, and hope that the bongs were put down 3 months ago instead of 3 weeks ago. Second, VCU. VCU has consistently been a competitive mid major. I see no reasons why this won’t continue. Winthrop, however, I think is a far cry from the team that made a NCAA run several years ago. They opened this year with an unimpressive win over Queens, NC. Seriously, I’m not sure if this was a rec team, tech school, or a legitimate college bball team. I’ve lived in NC and never heard of Queens. I think it may be in Charlotte but I’m not sure. Either way, VCU should win fairly easily. The lines listed above reflect a -130 7 pt teaser. I also took Tribe +20, St Johns +8, and VCU -8.5 in a risk 40 to win 72.
