Month: June 2010
Ghana 60:1
I added some Ghana World Cup futures at 60:1 to go with the 35:1 on Uruguay. Both of these teams are in the same pod (with the United States) and should either make the semis, we can start to pull out some equity by betting on their opponent to advance. Of course, If the US makes the semis, I won’t care about either of these.
Games to Avoid
Basically the rest of the group phase. I’ve got nothing for the next day or two.
It is the time for the fixes.
Here is what I know.
The fixers are in South Africa. They have been desperately trying to contact various teams. They have various runners and old contacts coming in and out of the hotels and training camps. They are trying ‘to do the business’ with various players and administrators.
Given these circumstances which matches should we red-flag for possible corruption?
1)Games where one team has nothing to play for. Even if they win the teams will not progress to the next stage of the competition.
2)Teams which have a history of not paying their players properly. It is the phenomenon of relative exploitation which drives fixing. The officials receive lots of money, the players comparatively little.
The games I will be watching closely are Cameroon vs. the Netherlands and Honduras vs. Switzerland. In no way do I want to suggest that I have heard anything about players on these teams being open to fixing matches. In no way do I want to suggest that even if they had been approached the players would have taken money. But I do want to say that if either of these teams loses by more than the Asian ‘spread’ of goals (2 goals and above) then FIFA should bring in their toothless tigers of investigators and begin to ask questions.
Have to post this:
Goal! Goal USA!
One Non-Soccer Pick
SF Giants @ Houston Astros (+126) – Two Units
Oswalt has been much better recently, not that he has really been bad at any point. And the Giants have been struggling.
Group A Bets
Kickoff is in under an hour…
South Africa PK +170 vs. France is on strike
Going with the point spread here. This will push on a draw. I have a small amount on SA +280 straight up as well.
Uruguay/Mexico o2 +175
I’ll be livebetting this one and putting my 100% live betting record at risk in this one. The draw for this game has gone from -150 to nearly even as the 2nd place team will have to face Argentina in the second round. Mexico will not be playing for a draw. Not willing pick a result up front, but I really like the over 2. I also loved the over 2 on both of Chile’s games, but their lack of finishing turned those bets into losers. We’ll see what Mexico and Uruguay have today.
EDIT: Knockout round scenarios entering the final group games are here.
World Cup
If you bet money based on my World Cup picks last week, whoops. Made five bets and the best result I had was a push. If I had been betting One Hundo a pop on those picks I would be down a smooth 4 bills at this moment. So let’s try to win it back! And here’s how were going to do it…
Uruguay (+296) v Mexico – Two Units
Uruguay v Mexico (Draw -108) – Two Units
As has been analyzed by many including Louis, a draw puts both sides through, thus making it a very possible outcome. But a win is very beneficial. I am taking Uruguay based on the idea that I don’t like them more but dislike them less than Mexico.
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 2 and 2.5 +109) – Two Units
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 1.5 -214) – Three Units
Here is my thinking. Nigeria is going to have to win in order to have a chance to advance, so they are going to have to play aggressive. And if they do score, the onus than goes on Korea to score or they are going to be gone. The only way Korea can play completely defensive is if the game is 0-0 at the half and even that plan goes out the window if Greece is scoring against Argentina. Let’s see what happens.
World Cup Week 2
Adding some more action no doubt spurred by the increase in scoring that was inevitable, even if it was hard to profit from some of the scoring. We took a bad beat taking Australia/Ghana o2.5 +165 when there was no scoring after Harry Kewell’s red card and subsequent penalty prior to the half hour mark. England drawing 0-0 didn’t help either.
Denmark & Cameroon meanwhile looked incredibly poor in their opening games and laughed at o/u 2 as neither team defended well or with much interest. The 2-1 final should have been more like 3-3.
Action we are adding:
o2½+140 (IVORY COAST/BRAZIL)
o2+120 (SWITZERLAND/CHILE)
TO WIN – FIFA WORLD CUP URUGUAY +3500
We know from the given match odds that Uruguay is roughly 75% likely to win their group, doing so with a win or draw against Mexico. If they succeed, their reward is a 2nd round game against Greece/South Korea/Nigeria, all three of whom they will be favored against. Getting 35:1 on a team that’s a favorite to advance to the quarterfinals is good value. Also keep in mind that the way the bracket shakes out, teams from Groups A-D won’t face Groups E-G until the semifinals. There’s a decent chance pre-tournament favorites Spain and Brazil will face each other in the round of 16. Uruguay winning their group would also see them avoid Argentina in round 2. Should Uruguay fail to win their group, any value at 35:1 will cease to exist.
Lastly, the Marlins gave away vuvuzelas to all fans attending last night’s game against Tampa.
Looking to feed off World Cup soccer buzz, the Marlins gave away plastic air horns to fans as they entered the stadium, the toy instruments creating a loud and never-ending soundtrack for the night. Similar to the vuvuzelas that dominate the audio landscape at matches in South Africa, the buzzing of the horns blared from long before the first pitch, and some were still going at the end.
The horns might have been a hit with fans, but they were a big miss with those on the field, especially because all the noise could have prompted a lineup-card miscommunication between Gonzalez and Barksdale.
“It was the most uncomfortable baseball game I’ve been a part of in a long time because of that,” crew chief Tom Hallion said. “Whether that had anything to do with it, I don’t know, but it could have. When’s the last time you heard something like that at a baseball game? Never. You don’t see this kind of stuff at baseball games.”
Said Maddon: “I really believe the horns should be banned from Major League Baseball.”
Added Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who, like the umpires, resorted to earplugs: “That was the worst handout or giveaway I’ve ever been a part of in baseball. This isn’t soccer. I know the World Cup is going on, but this is baseball.”
And this from Marlins center fielder Cody Ross: “It was awful, awful. I can’t tell you how awful it was.”
World Cup Action
Let’s take a look at some upcoming games over today and tomorrow. I will be betting units and keeping track of my payoff/money lost in relation to the lines. Will I finish up money?
France v. Mexico – Draw +215 – One Unit
A couple of teams with not a whole lot going on these days. Both seem very unspectacular. I am betting on 1-1 or 0-0. So, with that in mind…
France v. Mexico – Under -118 – One Unit
And then…the chalk
Germany v. Serbia – Germany -140 – Two Units
USA v. Slovenia – USA +120 – One Unit
England v. Algeria – England -344 – Two Units
These picks are about as imaginative as a turd, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. England is vastly superior to Algeria, the US cannot lose the game, and Germany scored four fucking goals in their first game. How the hell do you bet against any of these teams?? 2-0 in all three games.
Snooze
16 games, 32 teams, 25 goals. Betting the under in every game would have given you a 13-1-2 record so far. The only over to hit was Germany’s 4-0 win over Australia. Brazil/North Korea pushed on a 3 goal line and Greece/South Korea did the same at 2. 8 games were 0-0 at halftime.
Uruguay hit an over yesterday in the second group game and Argentina has an early goal this morning, so things are looking up. Having not looked at the lines in detail for this second batch of games, there has to be some value in some overs going forward. I wonder if the weather has anything to do with it?
Also, we’re adding a play England -450 vs. Algeria
World Cup Betting
The World Cup just kicked off 45 minutes ago with South Africa and Mexico tied 0-0 at half. Some various bets I’m recommending so far:
Uruguay to win Group A +350
This one is already off the board as Group A starts today, but this was also available at +400. Even odds for a team that should be slightly better than that in the most wide open group of the eight.
New Zealand Total Goals Under 1.5
New Zealand failed to score at the Confederations Cup in 2009 against Spain, Iraq and South Africa. They scored one goal in 180 minutes against Bahrain to qualify. They haven’t scored more than one goal in a competitive game in a very long time (games against fellow South Pacific island nations excluded). That said, they’ve been very good in warmups, beating Serbia 1-0 and nearly drawing Australia, losing 2-1 on a stoppage time goal. They still haven’t scored more than one goal in a game though. NZ plays Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia in the group stage and this bet says they won’t score in two of those games.
Greece – South Korea 0-0 Draw +600
Greece is quite possibly the most boring team in the tournament and +600 or so is probably going to be offered on this exact bet for all three of their games. South Korea will likely have to manufacture a goal from open play as Greece are very good on set pieces, which will also be their best chance to score. The over/under for this game is 2, not 2.5, so not a lot of goals are expected. This, along with New Zealand, is a high variance play.
Brazil -1000 vs North Korea
Brazil has to win this game over 90% of the time for this to be profitable. It’s very, very difficult to envision them losing to a North Korea team that we know almost nothing about but isn’t particularly good.
Portugal/Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals +135
A little secret about these two teams is that neither of them are particularly good at defending.
Brazil Goals for the Tournament Over 6.5 -110
This is not the most prolific scoring Brazil team to grace the World Cup, but they aren’t up against the strongest defensive teams either. This will may hinge on how many goals they score in their opener if Brazil have problems in their group. Brazil have scored 10+ goals in six of the last seven World Cups.
