Marathon Monday – A Bettor’s Guide to the Action

Marathon Monday is less than two weeks away.  Essentially everyone who reads this site knows that I have a substantial amount of money riding on my performance this year.  I have given Bones and DaGow 13:1 odds that I will break the four hour mark this year, at 50 and 20 bucks respectively.  Intense stuff.  In addition to that I have a couple of 50 dollar straight up bets out there based on beating four hours and a pub crawl bet with a girl whose also running.  With all that in mind, here is the odds breakdown.

WILL PAT D BREAK FOUR HOURS:

Yes : -200

No : +200

For anyone not fluent in gamblese, -200 means that the odds are 1:2 that something will happen, you bet two dollars to win one.  +200 means the odds are 2:1, you bet one dollar to win two.  The reason I am making myself a favorite is because I just have so much damn money bet on myself.  If I was running this for fun it would probably be just as likely that I would be drinking booze halfway through the race.  With that in mind…

Will Pat D Run the Entire Marathon

Yes : -500

No : +500

I have entered the Boston Marathon twice, finishing it once (4 hrs, 30 mins) and dropping out after 17 miles the second time.  Again, this line would be a lot different if I didn’t have a boatload on the line.

Over/Under Water or Sports Drinks During Race : 11.5

I honestly have never kept track of this in the past but I am guessing this sounds about right.  As a guide, the absolute minimum I could see on drinks would be like 8 or 9.

Will Pat D Beat the Random Girl Mentioned Above Who You Have Never Met (Updated)

Yes : Even Money (Updated Line)

No : Even Money (Updated Line)

You know you want to bet on this, you know you are tempted to throw five dollars on or against a girl you have never met.  As a guide, she is in her mid-20s in good condition.  I am almost 100% positive she has never run a marathon before, and I currently have an email out to her asking what time she expects to run the race in.  I may update the line accordingly when a response gets back, but this is the line at this moment.

UPDATE

Originally, this line was me -250, and the girl +250.  However, I received this email response back from her when I asked about time…

I’m shooting for 3:40, but will probably be more like 3:45ish.  What about u?????

CRIPES!  This girl means business.  First of all, she has her expected time nailed down to a five minute window, and on top of that she pops out with FIVE IN YOUR FACE QUESTION MARKS right back in my grill asking me what time I expected.  I was even tempted to make her a slight favorite at this point but I do hold one slight advantage over her and that’s that I have run the race before.  But goodness.

SECOND UPDATE

Follow up e-mail from Corinne

I ran in 2007 in 4:16

Oh Billy!

Will the Sox Game Still be Going On as I pass Fenway

Yes : Even Money

No : Even Money

Opening pitch at the game is scheduled for 11:05 AM.  I will hit the starting line somewhere around 10:35 AM.  You do your own math.  Note : If I drop out, “No” wins.

Will I Ejaculate From Now Until the Marathon

Yes : +500

No : -500

You will notice that for all these lines I have excluded juice from the action.

That’s about all I got for plays at the moment.  If any other good ones pop into people’s minds feel free to make additions.