Month: December 2009
So I said we were going to keep half an eye on this freeroll game thing from last week so let’s take a looksie back to Week 16. Before we do I should note that on Monday Night Football the Giants crushed the underdog Redskins putting the total for Week 15 at 6 Underdog wins, 2 double the spreads by favorites, and 8 Nothin’ Doin’s. As for Week 16…
San Diego/Tennessee – Underdog San Diego wins
Buffalo/Atlanta – Atlanta doubles spread
Kansas City/Cincinnati – Nothing
Oakland/Cleveland – Cleveland doubles spread
Seattle/Green Bay – Green Bay doubles spread
Houston/Miami – Underdog Houston wins
Jacksonville/New England – New England doubles spread
Tampa Bay/New Orleans – Underdog Tampa Bay wins
Carolina/Giants – Underdog Carolina wins
Baltimore/Pittsburgh – Nothing
St Louis/Arizona – Nothing
Detroit/San Francisco – Nothing
Jets/Indianapolis – Underdog Jets win
Denver/Philadelphia – Nothing
Dallas/Washington – Dallas doubles spread
Minnesota/Chicago – Underdog Chicago wins
WWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!! what in the name of bill parcells in going on here? 16 games were on the board. 6 underdog outright wins? 5 favorites double the spread? and the people making these lines are professionals! imagine the results if they didn’t know precisely what they were doing! lets see what i like this week.
Chicago (-3) @ Detroit
When has Detroit shown at any point during the season that they should be getting this level of respect? In my mind this line should be 7.
Giants (+9) @ Minnesota
I think the Giants will come to play and give the Vikings a decent fight. I think they would like to end the season with guns drawn.
As a side note, three games this weekend will have a solid chance of being playoff previews during the wild card. In order of sexiness
Another side note is that the last week is obviusly gut check time for season total bets. I’m looking at you, Atlanta.
Arizona -14 vs St.L
Oakland @ Cleveland Under 37
Atlanta 1.5 vs Buffalo
Baltimore +10 @ Pittsburgh
So recently I have been giving Van Tran some freeroll bets on sports. I am living rent free at 55 Montfern, so I’m giving the young man an opportunity to make some cash on the side. But I can’t just say “Alright, the Jets are minus 5.5, who do you like?” That would be a little too generous.
The result is The Freeroll Game. The player gets two picks from the slate of games. For those two picks, they get two selections; that an underdog will win outright in a game, or that a favored team will win by double the spread. As case in point, the San Diego/Cincinnati game yesterday had San Diego as a 6.5 favorite. If you go for this game, you are either choosing that the Bengals will win or that San Diego will win by 13 or more. Note 13 here is not a push, 13 is a win. For his two selections, Van played the roll of fan, choosing the underdog Dolphins to win, and charity case, selecting the favored Giants to double the spread tonight in Washington.
Here is how the pay works for The Freeroll Game. I offered Van two selections on his two picks. He could do separate picks at 30 dollar payouts, 0 for 0 right, 30 for 1 right, 60 for 2 right, or he could parlay the picks, 0 for 0 right, 0 for 1 right, 100 for 2 right. Van opted for the first plan picking the games separately and it is good he did since the Dolphins lost in overtime. Let’s take a look at the games and see how things shaked out in regards to The Freeroll Game.
Indy/Jax – Nothing
Saints/Dallas – Underdog Dallas wins
Atlanta/Jets – Underdog Atlanta wins
Houston/St Louis – Nothing
Cleveland/Kansas City – Underdog Cleveland wins
Miami/Tennessee – Nothing
Arizona/Detroit – Nothing
New England/Buffalo – Nothing
Cincinnati/San Diego – Nothing
Oakland/Denver – Underdog Oakland wins
Chicago/Baltimore – Baltimore doubles spread
Tampa Bay/Seattle – Underdog Seattle wins
Green Bay/Pittsburgh – Nothing
San Francisco/Philadelphia – Nothing
Minnesota/Carolina – Underdog Carolina wins
That is 6 underdogs winning outright and only one team doubling the spread as the favorite. Is this an indication of something? Is this a fluke? Is this normal? I have no idea, but it is something to keep half an eye on, and it is, The Freeroll Game.
Lots of action this weekend…
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
Atlanta @ NY Jets (-5.5)
Tampa Bay (+7) @ Seattle
NY Giants @ Washington (+3)
Minnesota @ Carolina (+9)
We start the week with this mantra I learned from Eric Mangini’s interview with NFL Network this week: “Sometimes punting isn’t always a bad thing” (you know that’s a shot at BB).
Thanks to Brian Billick, his adjective for Jay Cutler, “Jeff Georgish”, is now going to be an EXTENSIVE part of my sports vocab on Sundays from now on. You can even apply it to other things in life, like restaurant reviews: “Heading into an Italian dinner in the North End I was excited, but after having the rubbery pasta, it meal itself was a bit Jeff Georgish.”
Looks like the guys who made the Comcast info descriptions for TV programs don’t try that hard:
Onto NCAA News, congrats to the South Carolina Gamecocks who will face UConn in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, and to the Clemson Tigers who will face the Kentucky Wildcats in the GAYlord Hotels Bowl. Way to go, fellas! We’ll keep a close eye on these bowls here at Miracle Covers because quite simply, people who gamble on these games will be the only ones watching them.
Brad Gradkowski blowing out his knee may have saved by Oakland Raiders under season 5.5 bet (they have 4 wins now). They were playing well under him and even beat Pittsburgh IN Pittsburgh. Now Oakland has to rely on the Charlie Frye and/or JaMarcus Russell experience. I think my bet is safe.
If the Cowboys lose the rest of their games in December, I ship my under bet with them as well. Not out of the realm of possibility.
Here are the picks of the week, I have Jax in a teaser which shipped its end last night if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning, who is a machine. 12-12, 116, 2 Tds in 10 minutes in the 1st half alone last night. Ridiculious. I am sure GB will lose by 8 on Sunday.
6 pt Teasers:
Jax +9 vs Colts
GB +7 vs Pittsburgh
Denver -7.5 vs Oakland (led by Charlie Frye!)
San Diego -0.5 vs Cincinnati
Dallas/NO Over 52.5
Baltimore -10 vs Chicago (Good thing I got this in on Monday, now at 11)
Light links this week…picks I’m going to lose money on this weekend.
Worst Date Ever (serios). Complete with MS Paint NSFW Imagery.
The story above references a pee bottle, something I’ve never heard of, but Stuttgart GK Jens Lehmann could have used one last week.
Former Ravens coach Brian Billick compared Jay Cutler to Jeff George this week. That’s can’t be a good thing.
I was a huge Jay Cutler fan, and I’m not ready to bail on him yet. But I’m going to make an analogy here that’s going to scare a lot of people. He’s beginning to feel Jeff Georgish. Tremendous talent. The two interceptions, two touchdowns in the game [Sunday]. The interceptions, you just scratch your head and say, ‘Where exactly were you going with this ball?’ And then the two touchdown throws … there is probably not four guys in this league that could make the kind of throws that he made to get those two touchdowns. So it’s a head-scratcher. Obviously huge, huge potential. But right now, it’s only potential I think.
Fidelity fired four of their employees for playing fantasy football at work. I guess firing people for surfing the internet is next.
Maybe they’ll have time to follow this guy’s advice on how to make a billion dollars. It’d make a great infomercial spot.
I don’t know and haven’t measured how relevant road records are come playoff time, but I’d be willing to believe there’s a predictive element in there someplace. Teams that win at home are taking care of their business; teams that win on the road, even against bad teams, are legitimately good. Below are the current road records for all teams to date without further comment.
New Orleans Saints 7-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-2
Arizona Cardinals 5-2
Minnesota Vikings 4-2
Green Bay Packers 4-2
Dallas Cowboys 3-3
New York Giants 3-3
Carolina Panthers 2-5
Atlanta Falcons 1-5
Chicago Bears 1-5
San Francisco 49ers 1-5
Seattle Seahawks 1-5
Washington Redskins 1-6
St. Louis Rams 1-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-6
Detroit Lions 0-7
Indianapolis Colts 6-0
San Diego Chargers 6-1
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2
New York Jets 4-3
Denver Broncos 4-3
Houston Texans 3-3
Miami Dolphins 3-4
Buffalo Bills 3-4
Baltimore Ravens 2-4
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-4
Oakland Raiders 2-4
Kansas City Chiefs 2-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 2-5
Tennessee Titans 2-5
New England Patriots 1-5
Cleveland Browns 1-6
Stats of the Week
1. Miami and New England both won on Sunday despite being -3 in turnovers. The last 2 teams to win with a -3 turnover differential were San Francisco and Atlanta in week 16 & 17 of 2008, both against the Rams.
2. 500 yards of offense in a loss is both rare and difficult to accomplish. Check out this list of underachievers:
New York Giants v. Philadelphia Week 14, 2009 (512)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Week 11, 2009 (516)
Denver Broncos v. Buffalo Week 16, 2008 (532)
New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Week 10, 2008 (521)
New Orleans Saints v. Denver Week 3, 2008 (502)
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Week 17, 2007 (501)*
Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco Week 12, 2007 (552)
Cincinnati Bengals v Cleveland Week 3, 2007 (531)
*Seattle rested their starters in this game and Seneca Wallace played extensively.
Will need to look at this further, but this might be a trend. I’ll definitely be looking at Pittsburgh and NY Giants over win total next season.
3. The Lions are allowing a league worst 31.2 points/game on the year. The only two teams they’ve held under 20 are the Redskins and Rams (both at home). Detroit is 3-9-1 against the spread this season.
4. Rushing Yards – 2009
1. Chris Johnson · TEN 1626
2. Steven Jackson · STL 1279
3. Adrian Peterson · MIN 1200
4. Thomas Jones · NYJ 1167
5. Maurice Jones-Drew · JAX 1136
5. The Arizona Cardinals cannot turn the ball over and win. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 20-1 with a positive turnover margin and 2-17 when it’s negative. It’s not new that teams that turn the ball over tend to lose, but the Cardinals are an extreme example.
6. The Jacksonville Jaguars have averaged 15.3 points/game in their last 9 outings. The Redskins are going the other way, having averaged 24.2 in their last 5.
7. New Orleans QB Drew Brees leads the NFL with a 112.3 passer rating this season which would be the 5th highest all-time. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game this season.
8. The San Diego Super Chargers are the only team besides the Saints to score at least 20 points in every game this season. Their offense is possibly the most consistent in the league. The Chargers also have a total of 13 turnovers on the season and had only one game with under 300 yards of offense. Their win on Sunday was their 8th in a row.
9. The Chicago Bears are last in the NFL in rushing.
10. The Green Bay Packers defense currently ranks 2nd in the NFL behind the Jets.
Minnesota @ Carolina +9
New England @ Buffalo +7
NY Giants @ Washington +3
Bungles @ San Diego -7
No Jets line yet, but 7 or less would be appealing at home to Atlanta.
Miami @ Jacksonville (-2)
San Diego @ Dallas (-3)
Good luck out there today.