Miracle Covers

Week 11 Rambling Drill

Looks like women’s soccer is still getting chippy out there.   One would think said aggression would only be reserved for referees who make bad calls or miss them, but I digress.  At least NBA refs can come out of it saying, “Hey, at least we aren’t as bad as those guys!”

Three things on the debacle that was the Pats game:

1) Prior history did factor into the call; however, Bill made mistakes in both cases where he should of been aggressive when conservative, and vice versa.  Take the 2006 AFC Championship game, where the Pats, up 34-31, (after Tom misses a wide open Troy Brown on 3rd and 4), have a potential 4th and 4 from their own 46 yard line with 2:26 left.  The defense, who has played 3 games in the playoffs (and 40 over the last 3 years), and the team, which had the flu run amok in the locker room during the week, all in an enclosed dome, is gassed.  THIS is when you go for it on 4th down.  Never mind the better field position which makes sense; the fact that if Peyton got the ball, he was 90% going to score a TD in this scenario vs a very below average Pats D.  Anyone watching the game knew this, Bill somehow didn’t.  Only up 3, he punted, they scored, and Tom threw a INT with 20 seconds left.  This game affected the Belichick’s decision in 2009.

2) In last week’s game, up 34-28 with 2:10 left in the game, Belichick claimed he, based on a computer simulation named ZEUS that claimed an optimal Manning would score a TD on a 70-yard TD drive 30% of the time, decided he had better odds to go for it on 4th and 2, after missing Welker on a predictable out pattern on 3rd (more on this in a minute).  He claims they decided on this BEFORE the drive started, which I claim bullshit, because after 3rd down, the punt team ran out (which is why Bill used his final timeout, which cost the team a challenge that was 50/50 on getting overturned, better than nothing).  He claims that the reason he went for it all was so Peyton wouldn’t get the ball back.  Well in that case, he employed a strategy that would make Ken Whisenhunt and Andy Reid look like geniuses.

It actually starts on 3rd and 8 from the Indy 23 yard line with 3:49 left in the 4th after a Peyton INT, up 31-21.  If you are REALLY concerned with your defense (who had played a B- game at this point) not being able to hold Peyton, this is the time to bleed clock, run the ball, and play Dick Jauron ball.  Yes, fans in NE boo, but this is the correct play IF your goal is to give Peyton the least time possible.  You either a)take the 45 seconds off or b) make Indy use on their 3 TOs, and kick the FG.  The 3 Indy TOs (good coaching, Jim Caldwell) was a big factor in them having a last stand when the Pats get the ball back again, along with the 2 minute warning.

So, Peyton, thanks to a vanilla base defense, scores a quick TD, 34-28.  Pats get the ball back at their 20.  After using a timeout before coming out of the huddle on 1st down (?), the Pats have one left (and challenge with it).  The Pats are short handed at running back and unlike Miami in September, who lined it up and ran all over the Colts all night, possessed the ball for 45 minutes (and still didn’t win), don’t have their power back in S.Morris and F.Taylor, who are both injured.  They have been running the ball out of mostly shotgun formation via Kevin Faulk (12 for 78); L.Maroney was running well, but fumbled at the 2 yard line late in the 3rd (which ended up being the biggest play of the game, IMO).  They instead have to employ the shotgun dive play on 1st down, stuffed for no gain.  OK, second down, it’s Welker time, and they get him on a 8 yard hitch play.  After this as an O-coordinator, you need to know that Indy WILL NOT LET THIS HAPPEN AGAIN.  With 2:16 on the clock, if you are seriously in dire straits to bleed clock, this is when you bring out the BIGs and line it up.  For these reasons:

a)I actually think at this point, you could get a better matchup out of a 2 TE formation vs the Colts personnel as supposed to the shotgun vs Tampa 2, where they know the plays the Pats’ WR run very well, as well as the fact they know the likely hood of the Pats going deep versus the on 3rd down is highly unlikely; all they need is the 1st to end the game.  Not only this, the TEs were actually the ones who ended up being wide open out of these formations (Baker 2-31; Watson 2-57), and a solid bootleg fake-fade (the Ben Coates play) might be a better sell to a potentially blitzing defense, rather than a predictable slant/hitch to Welker out of the shotgun (which almost got picked off  because even the rookie Melvin Bullitt knew this).

b) Running up the gut rarely nets a huge loss, even if you don’t have your best BIG personnel.    The Pats are famous for employing a 40/50 power wham-play (where the TE motions across the formation, and as the ball is snapped, takes on a DT while the center pulls) in these scenarios.  They did this play vs a smallish Atlanta team, with Sammy Morris, on 4th and 1 from their own 28 and gained 5 yards.  Granted they don’t have their big backs, but you’d think Bill would pull Maroney to the side and go, “All I need from you is a positive gain here; and no fumbles”.  Hell, even bring Kevin Faulk out there, run a sweep, run something.  The point is, 4th and 1/shorter is a heckuva lot better than 4th and a long 2.

c) Say if you run, and you don’t get it, the clock goes to the 2 minute warning, where you get a free TO to discuss things, AND a freeroll challenge b/c unless it’s 4th and a inch, you are probably passing it.  On any big pass plays, it’s a good idea to have a challenge in your pocket if you go for it in this situation.  Having a freeroll challenge is optimal, AND even having a timeout in the back pocket for when Indy, or the Pats, gets the ball back after this possession is better than none.  Also, well all know why punting is the optimal situation here because of the fact unlike in 2006, we are up by 6 points, so the Colts NEED a TD.  If the punter is having a bad day, another reason to go for it; Hanson was having a good day.  Instead, the Pats dial up their best 4th down play, miss it by a half of a yard, and Peyton gets the ball at the 29 and he obviously scores.  Ugh.

3) At least it can maybe motivate this team to play better.  The Pats have had leads on the road this year and haven’t been able to close out games, mostly thanks to missing a big back closer like Dillon in 2004.  The defense is young and hurting on D-Line, but improving.  And the last two coaches to go for it in a similar situation, Sam Wyche and Barry Switzer, both went to the Super Bowl those years.  So, if anything, the Pats can start by taking it out on Jets.  However, if they lose that game, combined with all of the things that have gone on in my life and with Boston sports this year, I may kill myself.

The Picks (almost tempted to take Washington +11 @ Dallas, but only if Hunter the punter is QB):

PIT @ KC Under 40

A bit low, but with Bowe out, L.Johnson gone, I see no way KC scores on Pittsburgh, even w/o Polumalu.  Plus if the Steelers get the lead, they can finally work on their running game this week.

Teaser 6pt:

SF +12.5 @ GB

NYG -0.5 vs Atlanta

NBA Teaser for tonight!

Denver -5 @ LAC

GS +12 vs Portland