Baltimore -3 (-125)
This has bounced back from -3 to -3.5/-4 (+105). Miami has been on a roll lately, winning 6 straight…..but they are a flawed team that gave up a lot of big plays to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers last weekend. They are due for a loss, IMO. Baltimore has always played stout at home, and their defense is top 5 in the league and should be able to keep Ryan Tannenhill and Company at bay enough. The only variable, like last week: can the Baltimore offense score enough to cover the line? Against a defense like Miami who is clearly waning in play due to lack of depth (and add in a pick 6 maybe from Tannenhill), I like the Ravens and will give the points here.
New Orleans vs Detroit Over 53.3 (-110)
New Orleans Overs at home have hit at a 66% rate this year, and the two that didn’t hit were only off by a few points. Both of these defenses stink, and the offenses have QBs who are playing at a high level. This is an important game for both teams, so I expect a fun, back and forth competitive affair that also has some fail in between.
Green Bay -7 (+105)
This is more about the juice, and the opponent for the Packers, more so that whether or not they are an actual good team who can cover the 7. The Packers are quite flawed; Rodgers is playing well but his teammates aren’t fans of his showing up his teammates on the field, and both Green Bay’s running defense and offense has been shoddy this year. Rodgers and this team reminds me of James Harden and the Rockets: you have this one great individual player who racks up huge stats each week, but the shortcomings of the team eventually bites them down the road in the playoffs where not even a great scorer can overcome a more balanced opponent. Houston, who somehow still leads the AFC South and is now tied with the Titans, comes into town as one of the worst road teams in the league both in the record and ATS. Houston Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler, who they gave a shit ton of money too, is having his job security questioned by fans and beat writers from some guy named Tom Savage, who I think was in a tag team with the Macho Man back in the WWE. DeAndre Hopkins is on milk cartons across America because he is missing each and every week. Gimme Aaron Rodgers at home here.
TEASER @ +260:
NO vs DET Over 53.5
Parlay Special @ +280:
Green Bay -7 (+105) (NFL)
Univ of Washington ML -380 (NCAAF)
Demetrious Johnson -1000 (UFC)
Rob Font -280 (UFC)
Baltimore -4 (-115)
This started at -4.5 and is falling, I dunno why. Cincy lost their 3rd down back in Geo Bernard and their #1 WR in A.J. Green. Their LB corps are banged up and playing on fumes, and the secondary is not as good as they were last year. The Ravens are coming off a loss at Dallas they could of had, and will be playing pissed and motivated vs a Cincy team one loss away from throwing the season in (yes, we had the over #doh). I am wary of the BAL offense as it has struggles putting teams away, but I fully expect a Dalton giveaway and maybe some Cincy special teams fail to help the Ravens take care of business at home.
Jacksonville at Buffalo Over 45 (-110)
Did you know Buffalo has been the best “Over” team all year? Who knew! They didn’t hit last week, but that’s because McCoy left with an injury. HE comes back this week vs a Jacksonville team that can score in bunches (and also go quarters without points) vs a back four in Buffalo who, while is playing better, has given up big plays in the passing game all year. Tyrod Taylor should have no problem moving the ball at home, WR Sammy Watkins comes back from injury, and this could end up being a fun game with big plays and hilarious fail.
NO vs LA Over 45.5
Dan Kelly +220
Brunson vs Whittaker Fight Goes the Distance? – YES @ +200
Happy Thanksgiving everybody! Podcast #3 is out, and me and Lou have a lot (of hilarious fail) to talk about since we last chatted. Also some NHL thoughts, and we end the show on a positive note talking about the US Soccer team, who somehow had a worse week than the guys painting the MLS field in Montreal.
Here are my NFL plays for Turkey Day; actual good games! First time since 1975 that all teams involved have a winning record, and the best overall winning record b/t combined teams since 1995.
Vikings are getting healthy on defense (Harrison Smith is a biggie) and Zimmer has weathered the storm. Their offensive line is still terrible, but the Detroit defense is equally as bad. Lou saved me money back talking me off the Detroit Under 7.5, and now they are favorites going into this game to win the NFC Central at -120. I think this will be a close game, and with all of the missed extra points lately (Over is at 6 on Bovada +100 for this weekend; I probably take it), someone probably wins this game by one point between these flawed, average teams.
I got this on Monday as I thought it should of been -4.5 before the Andrew Luck news that he’s out with a concussion! Wisconsin’s Scott Tolzien starts; he played a little at Green Bay but I think the line jumping to -9…and then back down to -7.5 is accurate. The big stat here: Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in his last games vs Indy with amazing offensive fantasy results. The Steelers are getting healthy on offense and I like them on the road here. I also recommend teasing them if the line gets to -7.
Washington +7 (-120)
The Washington Football Team has been one of the best teams ATS this year, and Kirk Cousins has been on fire the last few weeks. He’s really streaky when it comes to his play (probably due to his inaccuracy). Dallas has played well but I don’t think their defense is any good and now with Washington being able to run the ball and having TE Reed back, maybe they play keep away vs Dak and crew as supposed to the other way around when these two first met. This is a rivalry game as well, so records usually get thrown out the door and I expect a close, fun game here.
CFL GREY CUP BONUS:
Jacksonville +7 (-120)
The Jaguars go into Detroit coming off a close loss at home to a boring ass Texans team. Detroit has the worst passing defense in the league, and if there is one thing Bortles and Co. do is throw the ball, especially when they are behind in a game. Matthew Stafford and the Lions do a great job playing *up* to their competition, but also a bad job playing *down* to it. The public is big on the Lions….I don’t know why. This is the same team that beat Minnesota in OT that also lost to Tennessee at home despite spending the entire first half inside the Titans’ 50 yard line and only scoring 15 points. That’s really hard to do! I like a close game filled with fail here, and maybe a Blake Bortles miracle cover!
Titans at Colts Under 53 (-115)
This is actually a big game in the fail AFC South! Everyone expects this to be a shootout in the dome with two offenses playing pretty well, and both defenses are pretty milquetoast. But Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota’s QBR tanks on the road by 30+ points, and Andrew Luck’s teams in these big games tend to have sphincteritis. I expect a low scoring, tightly contested playoff style game as this is essentially a “loser goes home” game.
Miami -1.5 (EVEN)
Yes, Miami is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Their win in SD last week was their first on the road in over 2 years. But they get a break this week as Jared Goff, the #1 overall pick, who makes his first start at home. The last QB who was taken first in the draft since 2000 to win his first start at home? David Carr in 2002 with the Texans. I like Miami and their front seven to get after the rookie and create some turnovers into points, as I will admit it will be hard for the milquetoast Miami offense to have many long drives vs the Rams’ top 5 defense….but I’ll take Ryan Tannehill over a QB who doesn’t know the Sun sets in the West. We also have Miami’s season under at 7, and since they’ve won 4 in a row, that’s in jeopardy so we can hedge here, too.
BOXING BONUS: Kovalev (+115) vs Ward (-145) Prop: “Fight Goes the Distance – Yes” at -170
Big time fight this week with these two titans of boxing. Both are undefeated, and Ward is coming up in weight to fight KO artist Sergey Kovalev. Ward is the sport’s second best defensive boxer (behind Floyd Mayweather) and is master class with his footwork and punching. I expect him to out point and try to frustrate Kovalev’s power and aggression and make him fight his fight. Kovalev has also shown he can outbox too, as he out pointed legend (and AARP member) Bernard Hopkins two years ago (a lean we had here on Miracle Covers). I like this fight to go the distance in a 12 round classic, and if I had to pick a side, I also like Ward to win in a close decision (which is at +105, if you so fancy).
Jim Miller +125
Woodley by 5 Round Decision +500
Stephen Thompson by 5 Round Decision +240
McGregor vs Alvarez Over Rounds 3 +130
Parlay @ +175:
Denver at New Orleans Over 49 (-110)
We barely missed the over last time it was under 50 in New Orleans vs Seattle….the Saints did their part, but Seattle didn’t, losing the game 25-20. This week, Denver comes into town reeling on offense as injuries at RB as well as the QB having issues finding WRs D.Thomas and E.Sanders week to week. They look as upset as most of the country did after this week’s election results. But, the number is in our favor again as it’s not only under 50 in the dome, but this is was just revealed on twitter:
Broncos rule out CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe for Sunday vs Saints.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 11, 2016
The Saints offense is top 5, and I expect them to be able to move the ball and score. Also, Denver’s offensive woes can be always helped by a bottom 5 Saints defense.
Washington -3 (-105)
The Washington Football Team has been great ATS this year, are at home coming off a bye and face a reeling Vikings team coming into town off of two losses where their OC Norv Turner just got up and left the team, the running backs are a pile of dinged up backups, and their OL is full of replacements thanks to season ending injuries. Oh, and their QB is Sam Bradford who is coming back down to earth after a decent start. The Vikings have scored 10 and 16 points the last two weeks vs some of the worst defenses in the NFL. Giving the points, here is the play IMO.
Prop Bet – David Johnson to run for more than 100 yards +135
The Cardinals welcome the 1-7 49ers into town this week. They allowed huge plays in the running game to Tim Hightower and Mark Ingram last week, two OK RBs. Never mind the best runningback in all of football this year, statistically. I expect a huge day from D.Johnson.
CFL Playoffs Bonus:
The election season is almost finally over (and thank god). A lot of folks ask me if I vote in elections; I don’t. I prefer to bet on them, that way when the result that I desire actually wins, I also actually benefit from it.
There are quite often some free cinch bets in politics as well; Lou once made money taking the side of a politician who was running up against a dead guy. Free money galore, although you usually are taking chalk so the juice along side that can get pretty steep. But our broken political system is pretty easy to predict these days, free money opportunities are abound.
So there’s this site that is similiar to InTrade, called PredictIt. PredictIt is a real-money political prediction market, a stock market for politics. As Lou has noted, the juice on this site is higher than the beloved InTrade from 2012, but it still gives us some opportunity to win some free money. The idea is you either pick an outcome (either Y/N, or GOP/DNC for example) and buy a “share” from $0.01 to $0.99 based on the market of other bidding punters. If your result comes in, then PredictIt pays out the rest of the share upwards to a dollar. So say you pick Hillary Clinton to win the Presidential Race at $0.75 a share. If she wins the election, you get paid out $1.00 for a $0.25 profit on each share.
Here are my leans for this election:
Massachusetts to Legalize Marijuana at $0.80
This opened at $0.88, then went down to $0.80 when the polling wasn’t looking so good at the end of last year. This is now at $0.94, and rising as lately the polling has been very strong for the initiative (last one I saw in the Globe was 59% for). Populist candidates and referendums are the story of 2016 politics as we saw in Britain and BREXIT. The only people who are spending money against this in MA are the churches (which no one goes to anymore), police chiefs, old white people in office, and rich old white people who hate life like Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands casino. A lot like when Barack Obama told UK voters they could be put “on the back of the queue” for trade if BREXIT were to happen, I think anytime these governors and establishment people come out against a law like this, it just helps the initiative even more, despite them getting outspent 3 to 1. Everyone I know is voting YES on 4, are for a myriad of reasons, especially the social justice angle. That is why decriminalization passed in 2008 here in the state; I actually made a bet on a spread that it would pass by a 52/48 margin. It passed 60/40, only losing 3 counties. I expect the same thing here, as pro pot is now in the positive for most demos that aren’t left leaning young people. Libertarians and even some social conservatives have now come around on the idea, very much like how gay marriage went from a resounding “NO” in 2004 to now being passed in most of the states.
California to Legalize Marijuana at $0.84
Same ideology here for this bet; this is now at $0.94 as well. Of course the land of Cheech and Chong, Snoop Dogg, and Wiz Khalifa was always a favorite to pass this initiative. The only people really against it are CA’s Mormon community, police and authorities, and prison companies. Not exactly a lot you want to side with on any issue. Also, voter turnout for Hillary Clinton is expected to be high (pun intended) for the state, including Latinos and Tech types who often are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. This is a big boost for legal pot to pass in CA, and ironically, Hillary Clinton (who is against pot) may have pot to thank for to clinch the state and voter turnout as those who tend ot vote for legal weed tend to lean left, even for a historically bad campaign like hers.
What Will Voter Turnout Be for the Presidential Election?
135,000,000 to 139,999,999 – NO at $0.80
125,000,000 to 129,999,999 – YES at $0.18
Percentage (via a sportsbook) Under 58% -115
In case you haven’t heard, this are the two most unliked candidates in the history of the race. Considering Mitt “Fail” Romney ran in 2012, that is saying something. Voter turnout for the last race was around 44% during the 2014 midterms, and even though this election has had so many media orgs promoting it left and right, I still think the overall voting population is going to sit this one home and a) assume Hillary is going to win or b) refuse to vote for her at all. The demos that plan to sit home: black people, low income people, and people under the age of 45, especially millennials and younger white people. Also, on a sad note, certain states have made it very difficult to vote with strict ID laws, understaffing causing long lines, and even voter suppression. This sadly is part of my lean on the under, so when you ship this bet, do yourself a favor and donate to an organization that goes against those efforts.
Ironically, we could hit the most Latinos to ever vote in an “open” election (meaning no incumbents), ever AND also hit 2000’s low of 50.3%. The last 3 elections barely hit 55%, so I like the under at 0.58% as well.
Will a 3rd Party win a State? at $0.35
I have no idea who Evan McMullin is, but all of the prediction sites give him a better than 30% chance to win his home state of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson is a former Governor of New Mexico and is always live to hit that state, he’s also polled well in Alaska and will probably get 4-5% of the vote. In an election where voters are looking for alternative, 3rd party voting will probably see it’s biggest boost since Ralph Nader in 2000 and Ross Perot in 1996.
Overall POTUS Prediciton:
If you wanted to bet on Hillary, the chance to do so at a good price was when she was struggling with Bernie earlier in the year. I think she got down to -140 at one point. Although Bill Simmons has her in a parlay with the Pats to win the AFC East, so that could be a curse of course.
Trump may cover the spread and make it a sweat into Wednesday, but I think Hillary on the low end get 288 electoral votes (I think it will be on the lower end, but I am just rooting for a fun sweat), and her ceiling is around 313 to 319 (depending on if McMullin wins Utah).
Random side props:
Winner of these states in the presidential contest:
Final Electoral College Score
Other: McMullin 6
Percentage (round to nearest 0.1%) of the national popular vote won by:
Winner of the Senate race in each of these states (OK to name party only not candidate):
Control of the Senate (includes independents who caucus with and will vote for leadership of that party):
Indy at Green Bay Under 54 (-110)
This started at 53 and is rising. I just think these two teams will fail enough where it won’t be the fantasy football tout fest this O/U makes it out to be. Green Bay’s defense is allowing 20.3 ppg at home. The referee, Tony Corrente, is also favorable to the under: the under has a 77-55 record under his stripes. Usually means he keeps the flag in the pocket, and that helps defenses.
San Diego -4 (-110)
This started at -5.5. The Chargers’ games have been the most exciting all year…..with the only one being an ass whuppin’ they gave to Jacksonville at home in Week 2. They have been great against the number as well. Tennessee is coming off a long week and travels into hot San Diego coming off a win vs the Jaguars. All Marcus Mariota does is take huge dumps on the road; with an average road QB Rating of 63.3. The Titans losing these types of games are why Lou and I refuse to bet on who will win on their crappy division.
Kansas City -7.5
Green Bay -7.5
Tony Ferguson +120
Parlay @ +250: Alexa Grasso (-550), Marco Polo Reyes (-175), Erik Perez (-210), Enrique Barzola (-550)
We have been hot here on the site the last 2 weeks, going perfect again in Week 7! Let’s keep the momentum going and get hot again like Blake Bortles’ completion percentage as he’s trailing by 21 in the 4th quarter.
New Orleans vs Seattle Over 47 (-115)
This is now at 48.5 and climbing, especially now that today it’s been revealed that Seattle SS Kam Chancellor is out again. Seattle gave up big passing plays at home 2 weeks ago to Julio Jones due to miscommunication on the sideline thanks to Chancellor’s backup, causing Richard Sherman to lose his shit on the sideline. Yes, Seattle only scored 6 points last week in a 6-6 tie in Arizona (funny story: I feel asleep during the game Sunday and woke up in a semi-drunken stupor at 2am to see the score and I thought the game was still going on until I saw the “F/OT” next to the score. Embarrassing). But that was a “rock fight” division game that involved two teams (with crappy kickers) who know each other pretty well. The Saints are an out-of-division opponent who has a crappy defense but a fantastic offense, especially at home, and anytime an under is below 50 when they play in the Superdome, you should take it. This should be an up and down game, and super fun to watch.
Minnesota Vikings -4 (-100)
The Vikings are coming off a lackluster performance in Philly last week. Head Coach Mike Zimmer after the game used the “s” word: SOFT. Whenever a locker room hears that from a head coach in the media, it usually makes the team pretty motivated and pissed the next week. They go into Chicago to play the lowly Bears, who get Jay Cutler back after missing a few weeks with a thumb injury. That might actually make them WORSE. He’s one hit on that throwing thumb away from us again seeing the “Matt Barkley Experience”, which is like if you combined QB play with the sophistication of a snuff film. I expect the Vikings to kick the shit out of this team, even if starting RB Jerick McKinnon doesn’t play.
Cleveland Browns ML +125
Yep, you read that right. Cleveland hosts the “almost as shitty” 2-5 Jets this weekend, who will be without C Nick Mangold, CB Buster Skrine, and QB Geno Smith (actually, that might be a good thing for the Jets). Cleveland hasn’t won a game all year, and we might not know who their QB will be until Sunday, but out of the rest of their schedule, this is probably one of the very few games they’ll have a chance to win. Hell, even 6th QB Kevin Hogan kept the game close last week vs Cincy and almost covered the +11. Add the good vibes of the Cavs hoisting a banner, and the Indians in the World Series, and the Browns might finally get that elusive win this week vs the Jets’ Ryan Fitzpatrick’s salty “they never believed in me” offense. The Browns are +325 to go 0-16 as of now, if you are wondering.
Keep eye on this space as I will add some political props via PredictIt, that I am on, as the fail election comes closer.
Not many big leans this week after a perfect Week 6.
Oakland +1 (-115)
Oakland is coming off a loss against Kansas City at home last week, and travels to Jacksonville to face the lowly Jaguars, who are coming off an inspiring 17-16 win at Chicago. Oakland offensively has averaged more points on the road at home, and considering what a shit hole the Oakland Coliseum is, I don’t blame them for playing more inspired football on the road. The Jaguars should be better with the talent they have in a division that is up for grabs in the AFC South. Lou and I have always said that this is because of their crappy coaching. After last week’s “win” vs Chicago, Head Coach Gus Bradley in his post game speech said that wins over (shitty) teams like Chicago is how you “establish your legacy”. He didn’t even swear, instead saying “that’s how you man the ‘f’ up, men!”. Methinks the lads are rolling their eyes if the HC thinks that wins over shitty teams are how you establish your “legacy”. Gimme the Raiders and the points, here.
New Orleans at Kansas City Under 50.5 (-110)
The Saints high powered offense at home, doesn’t travel so well on the road (minus John Kuhn blowing up in San Diego a few weeks back), especially in grass at one of the toughest places in all of football to play, Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense also is coming on as of late, and is helped in the Time of Possession department thanks to their (IMO) 3rd best running game (behind Dallas and Buffalo). I expect the Chiefs to run the ball, chew up clock to keep it away from Drew Brees as they make their run towards the AFC West title. I would take the -6.5 (now -6), but I’m gonna tease it instead as the Saints defense also happens to play a little bit better on the road, probably because they aren’t hungover eating delicious food on Bourbon Street the night before (KC does have legendary BBQ, however).
Miami +3 (-130)
This should be a close division style game, and Miami is helped by the fact RB Stud Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy is hurt with a hamstring and will miss this exciting match up. And by “exciting”, I mean, “exciting as much as watching a cat yawn”. The ML could also be a play here too for us as it would be a partial hedge vs our Miami under season bet (7).
Toronto +17 (-115)
EDM @ CGY Under 57.5 (-110)