CFL Opening Day 2017!

First, here is my DFS lineup for the week:

Second, get ready for the CFL season with a preview with me and CFL guru buffaloholdem:

And finally, here are some plays for tonight:

Edmonton vs BC Over 59 (-110)
Hamilton -3.5 (-110)
TEASER: MTL -7 and Under 51 (-130)

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CFL 2017 Preview Podcast with Buffaloholdem, and thoughts on Ward/Kovalev

First, we got an exciting new pod out with buffaloholdem on his thoughts for the upcoming 2017 CFL Season! We’ve featured buffaloholdem’s bets here on the blog before, and my CFL success methodology has definitely been influenced by him…..so I wanted to ask him on how he attacks a sport not many keep up on (including the books) as much as the more popular offerings. The sound is a little off and I cleaned up what I could so you might have to turn things up a bit……but things could be worse: I could be Vince Young and somehow find a way to blow $26 million in 3 years. We talk to Buffaloholdem about his love of the game, why CFL is still such a great sport to find betting value on, and discuss each conferences’ teams, CFL DFS strategy, and give our predictions for the 2017 East, West, and the Grey Cup (Coupe de Grey) Winners.

Kovalev vs Ward 2

Kovalev +120

I am really surprised Kovalev is a dog, here. He won the first fight IMO as he knocked down Ward once ……but the judges gave Ward’s technical late round boxing the rest of the rounds and a 114-113 decision (if that sounds confusing to you, it is but Max Kellerman does a great job explaining how Ward could win a fight he got knocked down in here). Kovalev hasn’t been talking to press at all this week, hasn’t even listed his purse for the fight, and is seems primed to avenge his only loss of his career. These two great boxers were meant to fight a trilogy, and a Kovalev win assures that.

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UFC Fight Night and Belmont Stakes

Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly Will the fight go the distance? – YES @ +115

Mark Hunt wins by KO, TKO, DQ +140

The Belmont Stakes:

Gormley 8-1

NHL BONUS:

PIT +120 (hedge as a part of my NSH +145 series bet)

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Stanley Cup Finals

Nashville +145

This started at +135 and now has gone to +145. I decided to jump in on this, as I am still kicking myself to not pick Nashville +1200 before the playoff to win (I did take them in the first round vs Chicago, +145). A few reasons why I like this play is that I feel, we are getting odds on what I think is a coinflip. While Pittsburgh may have more talent, and home ice (which isn’t as big as people think; ask any Bruins fan), Nashville comes in with the hotter goalie (Renne has actually had the 13th best run of any goaltender up to this point in the playoff modern era) and more rest, as Pittsburgh had to play 2 grueling 7 game series (while flopping goalies due to inconsistency) back to back while Nashville took care of business early and got rest. Defenseman P.K. Subban has really helped their powerplay, and I think that will give them another edge in this series.

Take Nashville, who somehow has an NHL team that is really good.

One more thought: these games tend to go under, and most of the time you’ll get a 5.5 O/U line with the average totals scored per game over the history of the Stanley Cup Final coming in at around 4.91 goals per game. The O/U is 21-39-7 since 2006. That being said, I’m taking the over 5.5 (+125) in Game 1 as I think guys will be nervous which means bouncing pucks and plenty of penalties and power plays. Then, as the series progresses, things will start to get tighter (and under).

Memorial Under

9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8.  I think I got them all.  If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ).  These are over/unders for today.  I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch.  In order…

First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble.  Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.

Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.

Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon.  Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.

Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.

Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100 

Happy Memorial Day.  Get better, Tiger.  (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)

****UPDATE****

Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto.  154 if my math is right.  The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day.  But the overs were over the rainbow.  Not sure if that tells us anything interesting.  Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00.  Maybe he’s not in so rough shape.  BDJ, BOOM!

UFC Fight Night (Day?) in Stockholm

Omari Akhmedov +195

Parlay +395:

Alexander Gustafsson-300
Pedro Munhoz -752
Omari Akhmedov +195

NHL thoughts tomorrow!

NHL Game 7

Pens v Senators Under 5 (EVEN)

Since 2010, the UNDER in Game 7s is 21-9 (70%)

I expect Sens coach Guy Boucher to “pack it in” with the neutral zone trap, as he did as Tampa coach during one of the greatest hockey games I’ve ever watched, a 1-0 loss to the Boston Bruins in 2011’s ECF Game & (Bruins’ Nathan Horton scored a goal in the 3rd). Also, goalies Craig Anderson and Marc Andre-Fleury are streaky but have the ability to have a great game at any moment. Game 7’s tend to be tight and I’ll stick to that trend tonight.

Lines That Make you Go Hmm

This is a category that has always interested me.  Today’s entry…

Yankees vs Royals  Under 9 (-118)

Pineda vs Vargas

To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms.  Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com).  Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected.  1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).

****UPDATE****

18 Total Runs.  Over hit before game’s halfway point.  Hmm indeed.

UFC 211

Maia vs Masvidal Over Rounds 1.5 -240

Yair Rodriguez EVEN

Parlay +240:

Antigulov-425
Jedrzeczyk -180
Rodriguez EVEN

Canelo vs Chavez Jr, Kentucky Derby 2017

It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.

BOXING:

Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.

KENTUCKY DERBY

Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1

NHL BONUS:

PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)

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