Lines That Make you Go Hmm

This is a category that has always interested me.  Today’s entry…

Yankees vs Royals  Under 9 (-118)

Pineda vs Vargas

To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms.  Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com).  Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected.  1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).

****UPDATE****

18 Total Runs.  Over hit before game’s halfway point.  Hmm indeed.

UFC 211

Maia vs Masvidal Over Rounds 1.5 -240

Yair Rodriguez EVEN

Parlay +240:

Antigulov-425
Jedrzeczyk -180
Rodriguez EVEN

Canelo vs Chavez Jr, Kentucky Derby 2017

It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.

BOXING:

Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.

KENTUCKY DERBY

Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1

NHL BONUS:

PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)

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Joshua vs Klitschko

Joshua vs Klitschko

Over Rounds 8.5 -115

In what is the most anticipated heavyweight bout in quite some time, the UK’s Anthony Joshua (-250) has a chance to go from wonder prospect to the baddest man on the planet vs veteran Wladimir Klitschko (+200) today at Wembley Stadium. Klitschko, coming off a decision loss to Tyson “I love cocaine” Fury, has always been known to be a prudent fighter. Joshua is a KO artist, but he’s never faced anyone with the defensive boxing of Klitschko. Klitschko often has a stigma of putting on bad fights because of his methodical approach, and his ability to hold guys and not allow them to find their jabbing range. I foresee this one going past 9 rounds, and maybe even the distance, as Joshua has yet to fight a boxer of Klitschko’s chin and pedigree. I fancy Joshua however in a decision (+500), as Klitschko is literally on the Back 9 at 17 and is on his way out…..but his iron chin and guile should see him through to the judge’s scorecards.

NHL:

Senators vs Rangers Over 5 (+105)

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Friday Playoff Action

NHL:

Nashville vs St Louis Under 5 (-110)

NBA:

Celtics -3

Playoff Sunday

OTT at BOS Over 5 (EVEN)

Celtics -2 (-115)

NHL Monday

Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105)

PARLAY: Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105) and BOS v OTT Under 5 (-125) at +200

UFC and NHL Saturday

NHL:

Bruins at Ottawa Over 5 +120

First off, NHL playoff unders are so far 1-9-2 O/U….and I think that will be the play for most of this series. But, considering the dynamic of Ottawa needing a win and the Bruins having injuries in the defense pairings, this should be a more open game today as Ottawa will be desperate to score goals even in Guy Boucher’s nitty neutral zone system.

UFC on FOX Kansas City:

Parlay @ +298: Souza -240, Johnson -699, Collier +120

Roy Nelson +125

Also, as a side note: if you do take the longshot Reis tonight in the title match, make sure to bet the “win by submission” prop. He is a jiu-jitsu maven and no one in the world is going to beat Mighty Mouse Johnson in a decision since he is the fastest fighters in the UFC. A shock win here will come via sub for Reis, and you’ll get more odds on that as supposed to the straight up +450.

EPL BONUS:

Stoke v Hull Over 2.5 +110

NHL Playoffs

Series Bet:

Nashville +145

I am taking this based on this alone:

Game Bet for today:

Bruins @ Ottawa Under 5 (-105)

UFC 210

Brooks vs Oliveira Goes the Distance – Yes @ -105

Daniel Cormier wins by decision +525

Anthony Johnson wins by decision +775

Parlay +395: Kamaru Usman-285, Myles Jury -450, Pearl Gonzalez +200