OTT at BOS Over 5 (EVEN)
Celtics -2 (-115)
Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105)
PARLAY: Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105) and BOS v OTT Under 5 (-125) at +200
Bruins at Ottawa Over 5 +120
First off, NHL playoff unders are so far 1-9-2 O/U….and I think that will be the play for most of this series. But, considering the dynamic of Ottawa needing a win and the Bruins having injuries in the defense pairings, this should be a more open game today as Ottawa will be desperate to score goals even in Guy Boucher’s nitty neutral zone system.
UFC on FOX Kansas City:
Parlay @ +298: Souza -240, Johnson -699, Collier +120
Roy Nelson +125
Also, as a side note: if you do take the longshot Reis tonight in the title match, make sure to bet the “win by submission” prop. He is a jiu-jitsu maven and no one in the world is going to beat Mighty Mouse Johnson in a decision since he is the fastest fighters in the UFC. A shock win here will come via sub for Reis, and you’ll get more odds on that as supposed to the straight up +450.
Stoke v Hull Over 2.5 +110
I am taking this based on this alone:
i really wanted nashville to win already… but now i've never wanted something more pic.twitter.com/KI6zFaWb3f
— dom 🤠 (@domluszczyszyn) April 11, 2017
Game Bet for today:
Bruins @ Ottawa Under 5 (-105)
Brooks vs Oliveira Goes the Distance – Yes @ -105
Daniel Cormier wins by decision +525
Anthony Johnson wins by decision +775
Parlay +395: Kamaru Usman-285, Myles Jury -450, Pearl Gonzalez +200
My results on these have declined over the past few years. Who knew that spending markedly less time on something could result in inferior results?
10 Braves Over 74.5
9 Cubs under 96.5
8 Rangers Over 85.5
7 Yankees Under 82.5
6 Tigers Under 82.5
5 Mariners Under 85.5
4 Rockies Under 80.5
3 Reds Under 69.5
2 Nationals Over 90.5
1 Phillies Under 72.5
Homer pick to start but a lot of Unders this year. NL is woefully unbalanced so it’s hard to identify a pure .500 team. If there’s true separation by June, we could really see things diverge in the 2nd half of the season. Reds and Phillies should be the two worst teams along with San Diego and I have no idea how the Rockies total is at 80.5. In the AL, the Yankees need several things to go right to hit their over. I think the Tigers and Mariners are sending out the two oldest lineups in baseball without the rotation to really cover as backup.
Division Winner Guesses:
AL East – Boston
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Houston
NL East – Washington
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – San Francisco
Some thoughts looking at these numbers. I’ve noted before that seeing heavy juice on a line can affect your decision making. You try to come up with reasons on why to believe something. Case in point last year with the Orioles. Their line was somewhere between -170 and -180 on the under. They were a trendy pick to lose a bunch of games, but they played beyond expectations. Would I have felt so confident in them if they weren’t sitting at -173 or whatever on the under? I doubt it. Anyway let’s have a look.
Padres Under 66.5 – Not breaking new ground here. Several have noted that, on paper, they have the worst rotation in baseball. I am a fan of both Austin Hedges and Will Myers, but this lineup will consistently be littered with mediocrity. And if the lineup is bad the rotation is horrific. No starter is projected to have a sub 4.00 era in the pitchiest of pitcher’s parks. Jered Weavers fastball was so slow the other day MLB pitch tracker listed it as a changeup. (True)
Tigers Under 82.5 – Some of the Detroit blurbs are either hilarious or massively depressing according to viewpoint. “None of their options are attractive,” “got roughed up again,” “need to turn it around.” Reports note that in regards to position battles, one player fails while his teammate competitor “hasn’t exactly been great himself.” Anibal Sanchez has apparently worked on his mechanics and is looking like he may rebound which is a point against us.
Phillies Over 72.5 – Lot of young talent on Philadelphia. Plus you know you are generally not backing the trendy money when you are gambling on Philadelphia succeeding in anything.
Indians Over 93.5 – Well we have already gambled on Philadelphia doing well, let’s toss Cleveland in. Last year as I routinely kicked myself for taking that damn Baltimore Under the theme that kept coming back for me was how good their bullpen was. I am slightly nervous that Andrew Miller may be wearing down a bit. Even if that is the case this unit should be strong enough to carry this team. Hopefully a fully healthy year for Brantley.
Brewers Over 68.5 – The lineup by itself is certainly legitimate enough to clear this number. The issue will be how many games the pitching gives back. Craig Counsell seems like he’s due for some success.
Cubs Under 96.5 – To win this many games there has to be a minimum number of question marks. You could make the argument that the entire OF is one giant one. Jason Heyward is an enigma, Jon Jay is a far cry from Dexter Fowler, and when he isnt tearing ligaments Kyle Schwarber has played all of 40 games in LF. Wade Davis may be fine but is coming off injury. Hammel gone, Lackey ancient. Too many questions for me.
Royals Under 75.5 – As has been reported on quite a bit, the Royals have quite a few key players heading to free agency next year. Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Escobar…this is betting on the Royals selling at the trade deadline even if they’re in a spot that isn’t horrible.
Mets Over 87.5 – No reasoning necessary.
Angels Under 79.5 – My only offseason note for the Angels was to observe they had signed Ryan LaMarre to a major league contract, specifically 50k over the minimum. That’s all I got.
Yankees Under 82.5 – Sure.
Actual numbers first. Lines with heavy juice noted.
Blue Jays 85.5
Braves 74.5 (over -156)
Brewers 68.5 (over -161)
Cardinals 83.5 (over -152)
Cubs 96.5 (under -133)
D’backs 77.5 (over -139)
Marlins 76.5 (under -126)
Mets 87.5 (over -130)
Nationals 90.5 (over -130)
Padres 66.5 (under -142)
Rangers 85.5 (under -125)
Red Sox 92.5 (under -140)
Royals 75.5 (over -148)
Tigers 82.5 (under -126)
White Sox 68.5 (over -140)
Gennady Golovkin -699
Gary O’Sullivan -3448
South Carolina -1 -115
Coach Frank Martin is 4-0 ATS in the first round, and only 27% of the money is on the Gamecocks.
VA Tech/Wisconsin Under 138 (-105)
Wisconsin is famous for keeping games in the 60s.
Vermont +9 -105
Vermont was undefeated in conference play, and Purdue is coming off a loss to lowly Nebraska in the Big Ten tourny. I think this will be closer than people think.
Wichita State -6 (-105)
Their seed (10) is lower than their KENPOM rating (8). One could argue this line should be higher.
Notre Dame -6 and Over 135, Michigan St +2, Wichita State -6, VA Tech +5.5,
Keep an eye out on my twitter feed as I will be adding more degeneracy throughout the day.