First, the Props:
Time to sing Nation Anthem Under 2 minutes
This is 6-6 in the last 12 Super Bowls…..Piunk is sick so she may try to hurry through this one
Tom Brady Over Completions 26 (-115)
He’s only missed this once the last 4 years – last week, where Jacksonville possessed the ball 65% of the game. He still went 25/37 so it’s not like he wasn’t close. Also as Cousin Sal said, “The Patriots running game is essentially pick plays and screens to small white guys”.
Over Total Turnovers +2.5 (+145)
Ajayi has lost a fumble this playoff…so has Blount as well as in last year’s Super Bowl. Foles is due for an INT, and Brady has thrown an INT in the last 3 Super Bowls. Add the Philly Special Team returners being in their 1st Super Bowl……there could be an abundance of turnovers in this one.
Burkhead Anytime TD score +175
If he plays, he’s been the Pats goalline guy for score TDs. I wish I could get a Branden Bolden line.
Patriots score on first drive of game – Yes (EVEN)
They haven’t done it in the last 9 Super Bowls they were in. It’s due!
Foles MVP +300, Brady MVP -110
Take the QBs, and hedge.
Amendola Over Receptions 4.5 (-115), Anytime TD scorer (+150), MVP +4400
Danny “Playoff” Amedola has a TD in the last 4 Patriots’ playoff games…he’s replaced Edleman in the “slot white guy role” and really no one can guard that once Tom/McDaniels/Danny figures it out.
Philly First team to call a TO -115
Doug Peterson was the second worst this year in wasting TOs (after Atlanta’s Dan Quinn…which they tried theri best to one up each other in setting TOs on fire in a playoff game)….money in the bank here and a 2nd Half TO may sneaky cost him the game.
Nick Foles Most Running Yards than Tom Brady -115
Seems like stealing….the Eagles actually call RPOs where Foles has the option to run!
Patriots Score on the first drive (EVEN)
They haven’t done so in the last 6 Super Bowls…they are due!
Patriots first play is a pass (-115)
The Pats have opened their games with a pass in every Belichick Super Bowl
Justin Timberlake covers a Prince Song during Halftime show (-170)
They are in Minny..he has to, right? This now is in the -300s….and the bet has shifted from “if” to “what song” (my guess is “Let’s Go Crazy”).
And the pick:
I think Belichick know’s Schwartz’s defense enough and they handle Nick Foles’ RPO game on 2 weeks rest to take care of business. Pats 30, Eagles 20.
Again, these are my picks, with my actual plays in BOLD
I think the Jags keep it close today, especially with Brady’s hand injury and the fact the Patriots offense can be streaky, especially late in the game once they get the adjustments down, which is why I like Jags +0.5 (-105) in the 1st quarter. But as the game wanes, I think Jags mistakes by their aggressive (and sometime undisciplined) defense combined by a healthy Gronk finally getting his production, the Pats eventually take this one down as they have been the best second half team all year. One prop I like: Dion Lewis Over receiving yards 30.5 at -125. I also think with the nice weather and the defensive schemes involved, points will be scored today so I really like the over 45.5 (-110).
Vikings -3.5 (+115)
I just can’t take Nick Foles two weeks in a row. BTW, they might as well call this the Torture Bowl with these two fan bases being the most tortured in all of sports. The Vikings injuries coming into the game are a concern, but you know Nick FOles is gonna make a mistake or 5 to keep them in it. I will also say, the NFL is worried about the Super Bowl being in Minny due to the lack of hotels (which means they would probably prefer the Vikings to be in the game) and the fact it will be cold as shit so the “experience” will most likely suck…..so the fix may be in for a Pats/Vikes Super Bowl.
NE/JAX Over 45.5
Quinton Jackson vs Chael Sonnen Will the fight go the distance? Yes @ +165
NFL thoughts will be later
1-3 last week ugh….so many coolers. But I got 3 out of the 4 winners right….so we are grouping well. Trust the process!!!!
Here are my picks this week, with my actual bets in BOLD
I think this will be a close, 23-20 or 27-24 type of game. Philly has Nick Foles but Atlanta is notorious for keeping teams hanging around, especially on the road when they settle for FGs. Atlanta should win, but I don’t trust Dan Quinn enough to bet on him two weeks in a row.
New England -14
Did you know that since 2011, the Pats (5 divisional games, 300 minutes of football), have not trailed for a SINGLE minute in the divisional round, and have been only tied for around 13 minutes? That is nuts! I think the ESPN article questioning the Brady/Belichick/Karft relationship rallies the team this week, and Belichick (who knows where the bodies are buried) stomps on a Titans team who is young and aggressive but also lacking in the LB and CB depth needed to keep up with the Pats’ passing attack. I can also see Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, who is back for this game, having good days catching the ball out of the backfield. It’s also going to be windy af this Saturday night in Foxboro, and that may affect Marcus Mariota’s passing accuracy. which isn’t great as it is.
Pittsburgh -7.5 (+105)
Wait, I get to bet against Blake Bortles in a playoff game *with* plus juice? Sign me up! I can’t take Blake Bortles in a playoff game, who *ran* for more yards than throwing last week…..even with the Jags top 3 defense. Just don’t do it….it’s a trap! I also think JuJu Smith-Schuster, whowasn’t really a part of the Steelers’ offense in their early season loss to the Jags, has a big game (along with LeVeon Bell) to offset the Antonio Brown injury. I predicted Pats vs Steelers in the AFC title game before the year, and I will stay pat on that.
Saints +4 (-EVEN)
The Vikings are notorious for choking in the playoffs, and the Saints are one of the more well rounded teams in football. I feel as if this line should be +2, not +4. Brees vs Keenum….I have to take Brees, even if the Vikes won Week 1. But yet again, the Saints team then, is different now (especially with the emergence of Kamara, and the Saints defense getting better each week).
Free money prop of the week:
Will a QB catch a pass in the Divisional Round? No @ -5000
Will there be an fake punt attempt in the Divisional Round? – No @ -300
I won’t be betting every spread…..but I will take a line for each game in the yearly quest to go 11-0 ATS (or at least undefeated). Anything I actually bet on is in BOLD.
Mike Mularkey on the road with no DeMarco Murray, a young QB who can run but has no one to throw to, and a WR Eric Decker who can get open….but just can’t catch the ball? Decker has sucked since he left Peyton Manning. Yes, I know it’s Reid and Smith at home and they lose here a lot but this isn’t the round for the yearly Andy Reid special. That is for the next round.
Saints -7 (EVEN)
The Saints are a good, balanced team with arguably a top 3 QB in Drew Brees and the top playcaller in Sean Peyton. I usually fear the “beat a team 2 times before a playoff game” line but the Saints are in the Dome, we aren’t paying juice, and the Panthers are incredibly flawed as Cam Newton has no one to throw to and their CB play hasn’t been as good as previous years. I actually might also take the Saints to win the NFC (+400), because I think they are good enough to get to the NFC Championship game where we could then hedge.
The Rams are good….but they are young and the Falcons do a good job of keeping games outstandingly close despite their mediocre play. They were actually the one team wiseguys bet on the most all year. It’s because, like in this game…as in most games….they have more talent than the other side usually, especially at skill positions. It’s just coaching really fails them in the key moments…despite the basics being sound (the Cover 3 defense, the stretch PA system they run, etc). I think they keep it close against a LA Rams team who has a banged up unproven QB, a backup kicker, and a young coach and roster with a lot to prove.
Do I have to take Blake Bortles in a playoff game? I guess, at least he’s thrown the ball OK for good fantasy stats the last few weeks. I actually like the Over 39 (-105) in this one as both Jacksonville and Buffalo are top scoring defenses and both QBs are top at throwing TAINTs.
And of course, the 3 result +135 teaser (please don’t fuck me Alex Smith):
BUF/JAX Over 39
Last Week: 4-1
First, a parlay (with an NCAA bowl game) (+168):
New England Patriots -1600
Washington Redskins -155
Baltimore Ravens -500
Now the Week 17 NFL picks:
Washington +3.5 (-110)
This is more of a hedge, if anything, against my season under on Washington (-7.5 wins). Otherwise, a nothing burger of a game involving two really shitty football teams.
Bears at Vikings Under 39.5
The under has hit in all of the Vikings’ home games where they were big favorites. They will be resting people most likely, and with the hapless Bears offense, this will resemble the first preseason game of the year.
Rams are resting everybody. They might also unintentionally try and lose this game just so they can be in Philly’s bracket (Foles) over Minnesota’s.
I might also punt on UFC 219 this weekend, if I can find away to step away from the poker tables in Montreal.
First, a new podcast with Lou is up:
Here are the picks for the week:
I don’t think the Cowboys are 4 point better than anybody not named the Browns, even the banged up Seahawks.
Browns ML +230
The ML is now at +185. If they don’t win this week, they will go 0-16. Also Bears vs Browns Under 37 as its snowy af today in Chicago.
DET at CIN Over 43.5 (-110)
Both of these teams have given up, and the defenses are banged up. Should lead to points.
Last Week: 2-1-2
Patriots -3 (+105)
Titans ML +115
LA Rams +1
NE/PIT Over 54