Week 3 NFL Lines

Arizona -4 (-105) @ Buffalo

Yes, it is an early 1pm game on the road for the West Coast Arizona Cardinals….but Buffalo is reeling right now, just firing their offensive coordinator (who was the highest paid OC in all of football) and probably not having Sammy Watkins available as he is battling an injury and was just downgraded from questionable to doubtful.

Carolina -7 (-110) vs Minnesota

Minnesota will be without the following former first round picks due to injury: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Kalil, DT Sharif Floyd, and of course QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Floyd injury is the most significant; the Vikings have a hard time moving the ball as it is and Carolina can just play the inside running game much easier to win the field position battle. I just don’t see how the Vikings score enough points to keep this one close.

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)

This one will be a yawner. The Rams best offense is their defense, and the Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin.

Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia

I think the Eagles good start comes down to earth this week. They are a little banged up and the Pittsburgh offense is playing well. Rookie QBs also usually don’t do that well against Pittsburgh’s front 7 the first time they face them.

San Francisco +9 (-105) @ Seattle

Is Seattle 3 points better than anybody at this point? Their OL and offense is in shambles. This is also somewhat of a hedge against my 49ers under season bet (5.5 wins).

TEASER (+160):

DAL -7
MIA -10
CAR -7

CFL BONUS:

Redblacks -5.5 (-105)

UFC BONUS:

Antonio “Big Foot” Silva +385

Parlay at +780: Antonio Silva (+385), Pepey (-140), Erick Silva (+105), Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200)

Week 2 NFL Leans

NY Giants -4.5 (-105) vs New Orleans

Odell Beckham Jr. and Shepard should have 500 yards between them in this game vs a poor Saints defense. New Orleans’ offense isn’t as prolific on the road as it is in the dome, although the weather in NY should cooperate. The NYG CB play looked improved last week from any game that they played last year. I hate taking Eli, but I am pretty confident the Giants take it down here. The only question whether it’s a blowout or a close game.

Browns +7 (-115) vs Baltimore

This is now at 6.5. The Browns lost RGIII last week, who looked terrible and it goes to show what I know because I’d thought he’d be good for them (although no Josh Gordon hurts). Josh McCown is at least an OK professional QB (as Gowin says, “he’s a McCown…it’s like a “Niekro” in MLB). Baltimore will be missing Perriman again this game, and their offense isn’t great as it is and I except most of their games this year to be boring ass rock fights. Home teams are 55% against the spread in their home opener since 2003. I think the Browns keep it close but lose the game in the spectacular, soul crushing fashion that only the Cleveland Browns can do.

Jacksonville +3 (+105) @ San Diego

The Chargers just lost WR Keenan Allen and blew a 24-3 lead in the second half to the Chiefs who beat them in OT. They come home to a fanbase that doesn’t care much for them now as they are most likely moving to LA. And, it will be pretty hot in SD for this game but the Jags play in that weather too so they shouldn’t be too phased by it. This will probably be a one or two point game no one watches (except for those that know who you are).

Titans @ Lions Over 47.5 (-110)

These defenses stink, and both QBs are disposal machines. Mariota threw 2 TAINTs (TD After Interception) to the other team last week.


TEASER @ +240:

NYG -4.5
NYG/NO Over 53.5
Lions -6
DAL +3

NFL Week 1 Leans

Here are my leans for Week 1:

Browns +4.5 (-115) @ Philadelphia

This is now at +4. And me and Lou discussed on the podcast, we think Philadelphia is really going to stink this year, especially starting a banged up rookie QB in Week 1. They are a young team who isn’t 3 points better than anyone at the moment, nevermind the lowly Browns. Also, RGIII has looked pretty good in pre-season and with new coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson, the Browns should be able to move the ball and throw it downfield. This should be either a close, entertaining game or a close, boring game that sets the sport of American football back 5 years.

Minnesota at Tennessee Under 41 (-105)

With a second year QB (Mariota), and an old backup QB (Hill), and two teams whose wide receiving corps have an average fantasy football draft ranking of 9th round or lower, I expect alot of two and three tight end sets and an over/under of plays with 3 WR sets at 25.5 (the average NFL game, teams run around 110-125 plays). There is a hint that new MIN QB Sam Bradford might actually play in this one, despite being there for like, a week. Titans TE Delanie Walker is questionable with an illness, and he’s a big part of the Titans’ zone read playaction offense. And the game is played on natural grass. This should be the day’s most boring game.

Oakland at New Orleans Over 51 (-110)

Both teams have tremendous offensive talent, all healthy because it’s Week 1. Drew Brees, who just signed a new 2 year deal, does way better at home in the dome than he does on the road. So does his offensive teammates. New Orleans’ defense is the worst in the league, and Oakland’s is about average. This should be the most exciting game of the day.

Baltimore -3 (-115) vs Buffalo

Buffalo’s defense is missing DT Darius due to suspension and WR Sammy Watkins is banged up. They also have some questions at free safety, an important role in Rex Ryan’s scheme. From Greg Bedard below:

There is no more crucial position in Rex Ryan’s defense than the free safety, who is the nerve center for all communication and checks. Graham had his share of issues last season after converting from cornerback. Communication was a big issue for the defense last season, Ryan’s first in Buffalo, and that has to become a strength for the unit to take the next step.

I expect Baltimore to test the safeties early and often with Joe Flacco’s deep ball prowless; they also get some WRs back from injury (Perriman, Smith) they didn’t have last year. Buffalo also will have a hard time exploiting the Ravens’ weakness, CB depth, as their QB Tyrod Taylor is more of a zone read QB as supposed to a guy who can dink and dunk with precision accuracy. Also, Taylor was a Raven, so the front 7 had a good look at his running style during his time there. Betting the Ravens at home has done me well over the years, so going to stick with the trend on this one.

TEASER @ +330:

GB/JAX Over 48
Hou -6
KC -7
SEA -10.5

UFC BONUS:

Mickey Gall -300 (now at -400)

So Mickey Gall, who is 2-0 in his young career (with two submissions) faces former WWE wrestler Phil “CM Punk” Brooks this Saturday at UFC 203. I bet this the minute it came out, and as you can see, the action on Gall has poured in. It might even go to -420 (lol) before the fight. CM Punk, who has been training MMA for the last two years, has never fought a professional or amateur MMA fight and has only done a little Kempo in terms of formal martial arts training. The UFC is really only putting him out there to sell a PPV. According to MMA journalist Luke Thomas, CM Punk didn’t technically meet Ohio athletic commission’s stated requirements for licensure (yet they gave him one anyways; who says money doesn’t influence politics!). CM Punk has also had a hard time cutting weight to 170 (which he hasn’t weighed since high school!), which is always a bad sign at 37 years of age. At 23, Mickey Gall is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu from the Jim Miller camp in NJ, one known for its world class rear naked chokes and guillotines. That would be a prop to take the day of the fight (I would guess Gall to win by submission would be at around +150; I’ll probably take that too). If Mickey Gall loses this, I might retire from MMA betting as I clearly don’t know anything (or, the kid takes a paid dive and the sport is rigged).

PARLAY: Jessica Eye (-145) and Mickey Gall (-300) and Werdum (-300) and GGG (Boxing, -600) @ +240

Tags :

2016 NFL Over/Unders

My Confidence is low but the picks are high.  Not enough rooting for failure for my liking:

5) Jets Over 8
4) Chiefs Over 9.5
3) Falcons Under 7.5
2) Vikings Under 9.5
1) Lions Over 7

Also notable and not in any order:

Bengals Over 9.5
Washington Under 7.5
Saints Over 7
Rams Over 7.5

-Lou

2016 NFL Preview

It’s here, the initial podcast! Sean and Lou open up to discuss NFL Division Winners and Win Totals for the 2016 NFL Season:

UFC 202 Leans

Cortney Casey +110

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -150

Nate Diaz by submission +200

Nate Diaz by Decision +650

Conor McGregor by Decision +500

Diaz v McGregor Over Rounds 2.5 +110

PARLAY @ +275:
Cortney Casey+110
Cody Garbrandt -500
Anthony Johnson -205

CFL TEASER BONUS:

TOR +3
HAMILTON -10.5

Tags :

CFL Friday

Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4 -110

TEASER: CAL -6 + WPG +4

Again, thanks to buffaloholdem on the leans!

Here’s a great way to go into the weekend: LFL highlights!

EPL BONUS:

Swansea v Burnley Under 2 (+110)

Tags :

Olympics Soccer Sunday Breakfast: Over Easy

True to form:

I am taking a ton of overs in the soccer matches today. A few reasons why the overs could be a theme this soccer tournament:

a) Most of these squads are U23 (each team has 3 exceptions, usually pro players who are older). They don’t play often and are usually very unorganized.

b) Mismatches. The Olympics soccer pool is a bit more diverse than the pro tournaments, with teams like Fiji and South Africa getting in. This usually creates some really lopsided scores, like South Korea hanging up 8 goals, 7 in the second half, on that Fiji team. In case your wondering, Fiji/MExico’s O/U today is 7, with the Over having -185 juice. That’s the highest juice I have ever seen for an over in a soccer match.

c) Brazil. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil was all about goals in the group stages. The stadiums are in diverse weather areas so and while Brazil is technically in its fall/winter season, since it is near the wequator some areas maintain really damp and hot conditions. This leads to fatigue, which opens up play.

Here are the plays for today:

Japan/Colombia Over 3 (+105)

Sweden/Nigeria Over 3 (EVEN)

Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (-140)

Brazil/Iraq Over 3 (EVEN)

4 team parlay @ +400:

Mexico -10000

Brazil -500

Japan/Colombia Over 3

Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (EVEN)

Olympic Bonus:

Dana Vollmer Olympics 100m Butterfly Women – Winner +2000

Tags :

UFC 200

UFC 200 is here…what a wacky week for MMA, especially considering Jon Jones got popped for PEDs and the DC fight is now him vs Anderson Silva.

Here are some of my UFC 200 Leans:

Thiago Santos +215

He’s won 4 in a row, and it a late replacement for his opponent Mousasi, who said “he preferred a bigger name”, so could be taking him lightly here.

T.J. Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao Goes the Distance -200

They have fought before, and that one went the distance back in 2013. This is an important fight for both guys as TJ is coming off a loss and Assuncao is coming off an injury. Both have really good movement and striking defense so I think it will be a solid 3 round war on the feet.

Kelvin Gastelum -115

Johnny Hendricks missed weight AGAIN, will forfeit 20% of his purse, and on the scales looked like how I feel with I have pocket Kings and an Ace hits the flop. This will probably be his last fight at 170. Kelvin is a solid wrestler and a blackbelt jiujitsu maven from 10th planet, and I see him winning by either submission or decision.

Frankie Edgar -130, Edgar by 5 Round decision +215, and Fight Goes the Distance -135

The Brazilian fighters have had a tough go of it in the USADA era, and some have speculated that is due to the fact they can’t take those special supplements anymore. Aldo is coming off a 13 second KO to COnor McGregor and while he beat Edgar in the first fight, I think Frankie has been on such a hot streak and wants the fight in MSG so bad vs Conor for the 145 belt that he pulls out a decision.

Other thoughts: I do like Tate at -260, but not going to take it as I would want that price a little lower before firing. If you are thinking about taking the underdog Nunes, take the first round prop at +600, as Nunes is the kind of fighter who comes out guns a blazing, but then her cardio fades after the adrenaline dump comes about……..Brock Lesnar at +175 is tempting, even if he hasn’t fought in over 4 years. But he looked to be in “beach body” shape at the weigh ins, so cardio is a concern and you don’t want you leave your head dangling for super striker Mark Hunt……make sure you watch the Cat Zingano vs Julianna Pena fight, it will be awesome but it’s also completely unbettable. You are better off taking the Cleveland Gladiators +14.5 in Arena Football tonight.

Parlay at +325:
Kelvin Gastelum-115, Daniel Cormier -400, Jim Miller -275, Cain Velasquez -300

Cymru Am Byth

Wales Pick (+170)

Under 2 (EVEN)

First of all, I am not drunk at 9am in regards to typing the title of this post; that language is Welsh, and it stands for “Long Live Wales”. This guy should get an Emmy for pronouncing this Welsh city name below:

I think today’s Wales v Portugal game will be a rock fight. Portugal hasn’t scored a goal in regular time this whole tourney, and Wales will be missing one of their key offensive players in Aaron Ramsey due to suspension. Portugal has a habit of eventually choking in these things, and I could see Bale scoring and Wales taking home a 1-0 victory (Bale to score and Wales to win is at +400). The draw at +220 is also not a bad play.

UFC 200 leans coming later in the week.

If you need something to fire you up for the week, watch this pep talk given by the coach of the New England Liberty of the LFL league (I didn’t know that NE had a lingerie football team!). He’s pissed his team is getting his ass kicked 70-7 in the 4th.

I need this guy as a life coach:

CFL BONUS:

Redblacks PK -105

Tags :